{"area":{"county":"Candler County","state":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","slug":"candler-ga","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":130019},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":137614},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":144529},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":151690},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":158656},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":159200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":160599},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":160952},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":165600},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":169431},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":170945},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":172753},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":175296},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":176618},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":179170},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":179939},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":177643},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":178451},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":179093},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":180756},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":181011}],"latest":181011,"yoy":1.8959373575091614,"fiveYr":39.2188833939655,"sinceStart":325.657848324515,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1002}],"latest":1002,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":49581,"population":11043,"povertyRate":16.252905625290563,"medianHomeValue":159200,"medianGrossRent":715,"medianPropertyTax":1721},"hud":{"county":"Candler County","year":"2027","perUnit":1002,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Georgia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55184,"ratePer100k":244.11762520052645},"propertyCrime":{"total":251033,"ratePer100k":1110.4954299609262},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.842382533605895,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":181011,"monthlyRent":1002,"grossRent":1002,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"GA","down":36202.200000000004,"loan":144808.8,"mortgagePI":939.2271204632741,"monthlyTax":163.0607425,"taxRatePct":1.081,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.08% ($1,721 tax ÷ $159,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":99.55605000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.1,"egi":951.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":100.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":463.01679250000007,"noi":488.8832074999999,"totalExpenses":1402.2439129632742,"cashFlow":-450.3439129632742,"annualCf":-5404.12695555929,"cocReturn":-14.927620298101466,"capRate":3.241017667434575},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-525.4939129632742,"delta":-75,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-480.40391296327414,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-475.23292546327417,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-599.0169466268954,"delta":-149,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-537.1973026970602,"delta":-87,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-599.0169466268954,"baselineCashFlow":-450.3439129632742,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.842382533605895,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":92133.44526228789,"totalCashOutlay":154538.65405044216,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":287680.16275702143,"equityBuilt":156211.91210525975,"netCostOfBuying":34528.94194518242,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":57604.50331710547},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6508138198100077,"price":181011,"medianIncome":49581,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.081,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.08% ($1,721 tax ÷ $159,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":181011,"secondary":159200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1002,"secondary":715,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.4,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":159200,"high":181011}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":715,"high":1002}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":159200,"high":181011}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.4,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":715,"high":1002}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Candler County, GA is a moderate market — a 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Candler County, GA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Candler County's 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Candler County?","a":"The typical home value in Candler County is about $181,011 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.9% year-over-year, and up 39.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Candler County?","a":"The typical rent in Candler County is about $1,002/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Candler County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Candler County — roughly $57,605 ahead of renting, with about $156,212 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Candler County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Candler County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Candler County?","a":"Candler County's effective property tax rate is about 1.08% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.08% ($1,721 tax ÷ $159,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $181,011 median home is roughly $163/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Candler County, GA was $181,011 as of April 2026, up 1.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Candler County, GA was $1,002/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Candler County, GA has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=candler-ga","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=candler-ga"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:27:12.288Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":181011,"countyFmr":1002,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}