{"area":{"county":"Campbell County","state":"WY","stateName":"Wyoming","slug":"campbell-wy","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":237513},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":248735},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":259910},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":266175},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":276863},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":279100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":279329},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":282634},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":285525},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":289914},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":286942},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":297877},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":299346},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":304796},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":308507},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":311571},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":313475},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":310332},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":318599},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":317830},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":323613}],"latest":323613,"yoy":3.2340697025281124,"fiveYr":36.25064733298809,"sinceStart":464.09036239083827,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1039}],"latest":1039,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":89869,"population":47240,"povertyRate":9.44310448789732,"medianHomeValue":279100,"medianGrossRent":1009,"medianPropertyTax":1599},"hud":{"county":"Campbell County","year":"2027","perUnit":1039,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Wyoming","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":1978,"ratePer100k":167.98215890195038},"propertyCrime":{"total":10906,"ratePer100k":926.194855907316},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":26,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.382794260589897,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":323613,"monthlyRent":1039,"grossRent":1039,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WY","down":64722.600000000006,"loan":258890.4,"mortgagePI":1679.1582065978396,"monthlyTax":154.5252075,"taxRatePct":0.573,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,599 tax ÷ $279,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":167.20005,"insuranceRatePct":0.62,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WY avg 0.62%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.95,"egi":987.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":103.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":529.5252575,"noi":457.5247425,"totalExpenses":2208.6834640978395,"cashFlow":-1221.6334640978396,"annualCf":-14659.601569174076,"cocReturn":-22.649895970146556,"capRate":1.6965625330255585},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1299.5584640978395,"delta":-78,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1252.8034640978394,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1263.4334765978397,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1487.4323737938548,"delta":-266,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1270.1654470707276,"delta":-49,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1487.4323737938548,"baselineCashFlow":-1221.6334640978396,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.382794260589897,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":95535.57847057597,"totalCashOutlay":265409.1777143441,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WY avg 0.62%/yr)","homeValueAfter":499028.9179088265,"equityBuilt":263988.86510447424,"netCostOfBuying":66142.91260986988,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":29392.665860706096},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6009413702166486,"price":323613,"medianIncome":89869,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.573,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,599 tax ÷ $279,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":323613,"secondary":279100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.16,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1039,"secondary":1009,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.03,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":279100,"high":323613}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1009,"high":1039}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.16,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":279100,"high":323613}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.03,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1009,"high":1039}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Campbell County, WY is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 26.0x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Campbell County, WY a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 26.0x, Campbell County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Campbell County?","a":"The typical home value in Campbell County is about $323,613 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.2% year-over-year, and up 36.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Campbell County?","a":"The typical rent in Campbell County is about $1,039/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Campbell County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Campbell County — roughly $29,393 ahead of renting, with about $263,989 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Campbell County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Campbell County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Campbell County?","a":"Campbell County's effective property tax rate is about 0.57% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.57% ($1,599 tax ÷ $279,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $323,613 median home is roughly $155/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Campbell County, WY was $323,613 as of April 2026, up 3.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Campbell County, WY was $1,039/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Campbell County, WY has a price-to-rent ratio of 26.0 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=campbell-wy","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=campbell-wy"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:00:36.344Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":323613,"countyFmr":1039,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WY","stateName":"Wyoming","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}