{"area":{"county":"Caldwell County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"caldwell-mo","metro":"Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":146929},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":150852},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":155226},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":164279},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":167104},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":166500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":168743},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":170635},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":176004},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":181076},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":182269},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":184819},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":186089},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":188107},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":190400},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":191062},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":193291},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":195120},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":196841},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":199354},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":198922}],"latest":198922,"yoy":2.913224102519,"fiveYr":35.386479183823475,"sinceStart":341.6268898607997,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1546}],"latest":1546,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":64806,"population":8927,"povertyRate":10.337674311397949,"medianHomeValue":166500,"medianGrossRent":640,"medianPropertyTax":1338},"hud":{"county":"Caldwell County","year":"2027","perUnit":1546,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":10.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.247485755237947,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":198922,"monthlyRent":1546,"grossRent":1546,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":39784.4,"loan":159137.6,"mortgagePI":1032.1634445243408,"monthlyTax":133.27774000000002,"taxRatePct":0.804,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,338 tax ÷ $166,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":99.461,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":77.30000000000001,"egi":1468.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":154.60000000000002,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":77.30000000000001,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":77.30000000000001,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":541.93874,"noi":926.76126,"totalExpenses":1574.1021845243408,"cashFlow":-105.40218452434078,"annualCf":-1264.8262142920894,"cocReturn":-3.1792014314457155,"capRate":5.590701440765726},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-221.3521845243406,"delta":-116,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-151.7821845243409,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-130.26743452434084,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-268.7863832881444,"delta":-163,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −9.3% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-213.80600717130153,"delta":-108,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-268.7863832881444,"baselineCashFlow":-105.40218452434078,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"divergent","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.247485755237947,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":142153.9983787396,"totalCashOutlay":169218.359977297,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":304027.9063762897,"equityBuilt":159550.90024876304,"netCostOfBuying":49451.85972853395,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":92702.13865020566},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.06949973767861,"price":198922,"medianIncome":64806,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.804,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,338 tax ÷ $166,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"divergent","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":198922,"secondary":166500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.19,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1546,"secondary":640,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":2.42,"grade":"divergent","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166500,"high":198922}},"rent":{"label":"divergent","ratio":2.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":640,"high":1546}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.19,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":166500,"high":198922}},"rent":{"label":"divergent","ratio":2.42,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":640,"high":1546}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Caldwell County, MO leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 10.7 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Caldwell County, MO a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Caldwell County's price-to-rent ratio of 10.7 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Caldwell County?","a":"The typical home value in Caldwell County is about $198,922 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.9% year-over-year, and up 35.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Caldwell County?","a":"The typical rent in Caldwell County is about $1,546/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Caldwell County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Caldwell County — roughly $92,702 ahead of renting, with about $159,551 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Caldwell County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Caldwell County's median home value is 3.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Caldwell County?","a":"Caldwell County's effective property tax rate is about 0.80% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.80% ($1,338 tax ÷ $166,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $198,922 median home is roughly $133/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Caldwell County, MO was $198,922 as of April 2026, up 2.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Caldwell County, MO was $1,546/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Caldwell County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 10.7 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=caldwell-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=caldwell-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T23:08:35.687Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":198922,"countyFmr":1546,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Kansas City, MO-KS HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}