{"area":{"county":"Caldwell Parish","state":"LA","stateName":"Louisiana","slug":"caldwell-la","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":84237},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":86813},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":88608},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":91398},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":92876},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":93300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":92815},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":92334},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":93969},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":94663},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":94450},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":94236},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":95343},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":93740},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":94970},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":96322},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":96421},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":96903},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":98213},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":97581},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":97997}],"latest":97997,"yoy":1.634498708787505,"fiveYr":16.33486472690148,"sinceStart":267.4152669466107,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":892}],"latest":892,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":47028,"population":9500,"povertyRate":29.782608695652176,"medianHomeValue":93300,"medianGrossRent":830,"medianPropertyTax":415},"hud":{"county":"Caldwell Parish","year":"2027","perUnit":892,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Louisiana","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":36926,"ratePer100k":399.78874836001734},"propertyCrime":{"total":156668,"ratePer100k":1696.2060236166167},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":9.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":3.0727295571661317,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":97997,"monthlyRent":892,"grossRent":892,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"LA","down":19599.4,"loan":78397.6,"mortgagePI":508.4853413551634,"monthlyTax":36.34055416666667,"taxRatePct":0.445,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($415 tax ÷ $93,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":71.86446666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.88,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (LA avg 0.88%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":44.6,"egi":847.4,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":89.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":44.6,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":44.6,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":286.60502083333336,"noi":560.7949791666666,"totalExpenses":795.0903621884968,"cashFlow":52.309637811503194,"annualCf":627.7156537380383,"cocReturn":3.2027289291408834,"capRate":6.867087512883048},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-14.590362188496727,"delta":-67,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":25.549637811503203,"delta":-27,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":34.34352114483647,"delta":-18,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-28.180008010761185,"delta":-80,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.0% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":31.934841424712204,"delta":-20,"survives":true}],"survived":3,"total":5,"score":60,"worstCashFlow":-28.180008010761185,"baselineCashFlow":52.309637811503194,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.0727295571661317,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":82018.99518359362,"totalCashOutlay":80448.71023033974,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (LA avg 0.88%/yr)","homeValueAfter":121120.93664126468,"equityBuilt":49945.73646491795,"netCostOfBuying":50102.37376542179,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":31916.62141817183},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.083801139746534,"price":97997,"medianIncome":47028,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.445,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($415 tax ÷ $93,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":97997,"secondary":93300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":892,"secondary":830,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.07,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":93300,"high":97997}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":830,"high":892}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":93300,"high":97997}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.07,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":830,"high":892}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Caldwell Parish, LA leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 9.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (52/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Caldwell Parish, LA a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Caldwell Parish's price-to-rent ratio of 9.2 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $52/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Caldwell Parish?","a":"The typical home value in Caldwell Parish is about $97,997 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.6% year-over-year, and up 16.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Caldwell Parish?","a":"The typical rent in Caldwell Parish is about $892/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Caldwell Parish?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Caldwell Parish — roughly $31,917 ahead of renting, with about $49,946 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Caldwell Parish affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Caldwell Parish's median home value is 2.1x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Caldwell Parish?","a":"Caldwell Parish's effective property tax rate is about 0.45% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($415 tax ÷ $93,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $97,997 median home is roughly $36/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Caldwell Parish, LA was $97,997 as of April 2026, up 1.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Caldwell Parish, LA was $892/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Caldwell Parish, LA has a price-to-rent ratio of 9.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=caldwell-la","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=caldwell-la"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:08:44.958Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":97997,"countyFmr":892,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"LA","stateName":"Louisiana","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}