{"area":{"county":"Butler County","state":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","slug":"butler-ne","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":161630},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":167420},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":172695},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":178183},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":182787},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":184200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":187159},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":189792},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":192464},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":197098},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":195927},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":201998},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":205076},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":204280},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":209956},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":209156},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":211720},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":212905},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":214698},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":217129},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":216007}],"latest":216007,"yoy":2.024844133761572,"fiveYr":33.64288807770834,"sinceStart":337.27883719988665,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":79268,"population":8424,"povertyRate":9.738459684223214,"medianHomeValue":184200,"medianGrossRent":776,"medianPropertyTax":2044},"hud":{"county":"Butler County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Nebraska","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":8346,"ratePer100k":206.7882850695191},"propertyCrime":{"total":52809,"ratePer100k":1308.445069043402},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17.8,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.8× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.9723631693408,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":216007,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NE","down":43201.4,"loan":172805.6,"mortgagePI":1120.8138323632845,"monthlyTax":199.806475,"taxRatePct":1.11,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.11% ($2,044 tax ÷ $184,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":136.80443333333332,"insuranceRatePct":0.76,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":539.4109083333333,"noi":423.8890916666667,"totalExpenses":1660.2247406966178,"cashFlow":-696.9247406966178,"annualCf":-8363.096888359414,"cocReturn":-19.35839321957023,"capRate":2.3548630831408244},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-772.9747406966178,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-727.3447406966178,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-731.1258490299513,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-874.341671063158,"delta":-177,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-723.3634227327293,"delta":-26,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-874.341671063158,"baselineCashFlow":-696.9247406966178,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.9723631693408,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":198400.69288098425,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NE avg 0.76%/yr)","homeValueAfter":324202.3506036242,"equityBuilt":167316.51262397046,"netCostOfBuying":74285.58025701379,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":18951.25955931349},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.725021446233032,"price":216007,"medianIncome":79268,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.11,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.11% ($2,044 tax ÷ $184,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":216007,"secondary":184200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":776,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":184200,"high":216007}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":776,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":184200,"high":216007}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":776,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Butler County, NE is a moderate market — a 17.8x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Butler County, NE a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Butler County's 17.8x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Butler County?","a":"The typical home value in Butler County is about $216,007 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.0% year-over-year, and up 33.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Butler County?","a":"The typical rent in Butler County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Butler County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Butler County — roughly $18,951 ahead of renting, with about $167,317 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Butler County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Butler County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Butler County?","a":"Butler County's effective property tax rate is about 1.11% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.11% ($2,044 tax ÷ $184,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $216,007 median home is roughly $200/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Butler County, NE was $216,007 as of April 2026, up 2.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Butler County, NE was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Butler County, NE has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.8 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=butler-ne","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=butler-ne"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:01:46.702Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":216007,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"NE","stateName":"Nebraska","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}