{"area":{"county":"Butler County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"butler-mo","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":126019},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":130459},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":135100},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":140251},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":144475},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":145100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":146410},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":148065},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":151965},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":154943},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":156844},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":159809},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":161918},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":163896},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":165155},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":166789},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":167805},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":168796},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":172735},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":173407},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":174113}],"latest":174113,"yoy":3.7591251750543786,"fiveYr":38.16408636792865,"sinceStart":309.34054308216764,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":962}],"latest":962,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":49089,"population":42020,"povertyRate":20.503413591195123,"medianHomeValue":145100,"medianGrossRent":780,"medianPropertyTax":967},"hud":{"county":"Butler County","year":"2027","perUnit":962,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.679968367542011,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":174113,"monthlyRent":962,"grossRent":962,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":34822.6,"loan":139290.4,"mortgagePI":903.4348831022538,"monthlyTax":96.632715,"taxRatePct":0.666,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($967 tax ÷ $145,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":87.05650000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":48.1,"egi":913.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":96.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":48.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":48.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":376.0892150000001,"noi":537.8107849999999,"totalExpenses":1279.524098102254,"cashFlow":-365.6240981022539,"annualCf":-4387.489177227048,"cocReturn":-12.599545057597789,"capRate":3.7066327155353123},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-437.7740981022538,"delta":-72,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-394.48409810225394,"delta":-29,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-387.38822310225385,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-508.6314728489492,"delta":-143,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-417.17681181162436,"delta":-52,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-508.6314728489492,"baselineCashFlow":-365.6240981022539,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.679968367542011,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":88455.46341548998,"totalCashOutlay":148610.94966241086,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":273786.069005559,"equityBuilt":147327.83428098343,"netCostOfBuying":36105.715381427435,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":52349.74803406255},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.546884230683045,"price":174113,"medianIncome":49089,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.666,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($967 tax ÷ $145,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":174113,"secondary":145100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":962,"secondary":780,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":145100,"high":174113}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":780,"high":962}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":145100,"high":174113}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":780,"high":962}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Butler County, MO is a moderate market — a 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Butler County, MO a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Butler County's 15.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Butler County?","a":"The typical home value in Butler County is about $174,113 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Butler County?","a":"The typical rent in Butler County is about $962/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Butler County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Butler County — roughly $52,350 ahead of renting, with about $147,328 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Butler County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Butler County's median home value is 3.5x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Butler County?","a":"Butler County's effective property tax rate is about 0.67% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.67% ($967 tax ÷ $145,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $174,113 median home is roughly $97/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Butler County, MO was $174,113 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Butler County, MO was $962/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Butler County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=butler-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=butler-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T20:31:43.127Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":174113,"countyFmr":962,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}