{"area":{"county":"Burleson County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"burleson-tx","metro":"College Station-Bryan, TX MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":152458},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":163800},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":165294},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":172149},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":182847},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":191000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":180854},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":190697},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":197091},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":198883},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":198872},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":200377},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":203804},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":203241},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":203106},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":208715},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":222000},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":205206},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":211557},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":213544},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":217052}],"latest":217052,"yoy":-2.2288288288288287,"fiveYr":42.36838998281494,"sinceStart":318.357040977603,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1151}],"latest":1151,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":70000,"population":18857,"povertyRate":12.691689008042895,"medianHomeValue":191000,"medianGrossRent":1063,"medianPropertyTax":1816},"hud":{"county":"Burleson County","year":"2027","perUnit":1151,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":236610,"ratePer100k":373.0863066051366},"propertyCrime":{"total":1238795,"ratePer100k":1953.3301685935094},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":15.7,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.7× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":7.3215448536308125,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":217052,"monthlyRent":1151,"grossRent":1151,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":43410.4,"loan":173641.6,"mortgagePI":1126.2361124505949,"monthlyTax":172.01370999999997,"taxRatePct":0.951,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.95% ($1,816 tax ÷ $191,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":153.74516666666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.550000000000004,"egi":1093.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":115.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":555.9588766666667,"noi":537.4911233333333,"totalExpenses":1682.1949891172617,"cashFlow":-588.7449891172615,"annualCf":-7064.939869407139,"cocReturn":-16.274763350273524,"capRate":2.971589057000166},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-675.0699891172615,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-623.2749891172615,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-627.1812807839281,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-767.020228206357,"delta":-178,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1983-07-01) (home values −12.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1987-01-01 → 1988-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-692.0577754889083,"delta":-103,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-767.020228206357,"baselineCashFlow":-588.7449891172615,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.3215448536308125,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105833.92764161018,"totalCashOutlay":203458.1549393726,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":355936.2338006716,"equityBuilt":198291.4125441391,"netCostOfBuying":48577.14239523347,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":57256.785246376705},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.100742857142857,"price":217052,"medianIncome":70000,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.951,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.95% ($1,816 tax ÷ $191,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":217052,"secondary":191000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1151,"secondary":1063,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.08,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":191000,"high":217052}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1063,"high":1151}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":191000,"high":217052}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.08,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1063,"high":1151}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Burleson County, TX is a moderate market — a 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Burleson County, TX a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Burleson County's 15.7x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Burleson County?","a":"The typical home value in Burleson County is about $217,052 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 2.2% year-over-year, and up 42.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Burleson County?","a":"The typical rent in Burleson County is about $1,151/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Burleson County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Burleson County — roughly $57,257 ahead of renting, with about $198,291 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Burleson County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Burleson County's median home value is 3.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Burleson County?","a":"Burleson County's effective property tax rate is about 0.95% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.95% ($1,816 tax ÷ $191,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $217,052 median home is roughly $172/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Burleson County, TX was $217,052 as of April 2026, down 2.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Burleson County, TX was $1,151/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Burleson County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.7 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=burleson-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=burleson-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:49:52.558Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, College Station-Bryan, TX MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"College Station-Bryan, TX MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":217052,"countyFmr":1151,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"College Station-Bryan, TX MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}