{"area":{"county":"Burke County","state":"ND","stateName":"North Dakota","slug":"burke-nd","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":141496},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":146156},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":149967},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":153848},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":156174},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":158100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":158904},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":160575},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":163127},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":162122},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":167230},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":167008},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":168163},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":169806},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":172189},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":173860},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":178379},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":180660},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":182970},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":185009},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":186948}],"latest":186948,"yoy":4.803816592760358,"fiveYr":32.12246282580426,"sinceStart":362.9717682020802,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":91591,"population":2156,"povertyRate":5.890538033395176,"medianHomeValue":158100,"medianGrossRent":684,"medianPropertyTax":846},"hud":{"county":"Burke County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"North Dakota","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":3411,"ratePer100k":213.3587203730994},"propertyCrime":{"total":21003,"ratePer100k":1313.741777776666},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15.4,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.4× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.730100428349982,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":186948,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"ND","down":37389.6,"loan":149558.4,"mortgagePI":970.0329356578782,"monthlyTax":83.34765,"taxRatePct":0.535,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($846 tax ÷ $158,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":99.7056,"insuranceRatePct":0.64,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ND avg 0.64%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":385.85325,"noi":577.44675,"totalExpenses":1355.8861856578783,"cashFlow":-392.5861856578782,"annualCf":-4711.034227894539,"cocReturn":-12.599851905060602,"capRate":3.7065713460427494},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-468.6361856578781,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-423.0061856578782,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-417.51258565787816,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-546.1355627528982,"delta":-154,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.9% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2010-07-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-421.9797697899629,"delta":-29,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-546.1355627528982,"baselineCashFlow":-392.5861856578782,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.730100428349982,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":159026.26291561365,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ND avg 0.64%/yr)","homeValueAfter":276128.56531208055,"equityBuilt":140348.27282794667,"netCostOfBuying":56067.59008766699,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":37169.24972866029},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.0411175770545142,"price":186948,"medianIncome":91591,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.535,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($846 tax ÷ $158,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":186948,"secondary":158100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":684,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.48,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":158100,"high":186948}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.48,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":684,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":158100,"high":186948}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.48,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":684,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Burke County, ND is a moderate market — a 15.4x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Burke County, ND a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Burke County's 15.4x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Burke County?","a":"The typical home value in Burke County is about $186,948 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 4.8% year-over-year, and up 32.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Burke County?","a":"The typical rent in Burke County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Burke County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Burke County — roughly $37,169 ahead of renting, with about $140,348 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Burke County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Burke County's median home value is 2.0x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Burke County?","a":"Burke County's effective property tax rate is about 0.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($846 tax ÷ $158,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $186,948 median home is roughly $83/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Burke County, ND was $186,948 as of April 2026, up 4.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Burke County, ND was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Burke County, ND has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.4 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=burke-nd","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=burke-nd"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T21:33:27.501Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":186948,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"ND","stateName":"North Dakota","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}