{"area":{"county":"Bulloch County","state":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","slug":"bulloch-ga","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":181717},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":192332},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":201996},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":212004},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":221739},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":222500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":224455},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":224949},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":231445},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":236800},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":238915},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":241441},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":244995},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":246844},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":250410},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":251486},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":248276},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":249405},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":250303},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":252627},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":252983}],"latest":252983,"yoy":1.8958739467366963,"fiveYr":39.21812488649934,"sinceStart":325.6608281594401,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1160}],"latest":1160,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":58810,"population":82683,"povertyRate":23.01227585660108,"medianHomeValue":222500,"medianGrossRent":995,"medianPropertyTax":1679},"hud":{"county":"Bulloch County","year":"2027","perUnit":1160,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Georgia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55184,"ratePer100k":244.11762520052645},"propertyCrime":{"total":251033,"ratePer100k":1110.4954299609262},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.842266095354277,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":252983,"monthlyRent":1160,"grossRent":1160,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"GA","down":50596.600000000006,"loan":202386.4,"mortgagePI":1312.674338112935,"monthlyTax":159.16847083333334,"taxRatePct":0.755,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($1,679 tax ÷ $222,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":139.14065,"insuranceRatePct":0.66,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":58,"egi":1102,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":116,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":58,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":58,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":530.3091208333333,"noi":571.6908791666667,"totalExpenses":1842.9834589462682,"cashFlow":-740.9834589462682,"annualCf":-8891.80150735522,"cocReturn":-17.573911107377214,"capRate":2.7117595055794266},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-827.9834589462683,"delta":-87,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-775.7834589462682,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-775.7686214462683,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-948.7705551742538,"delta":-208,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-841.5320278082993,"delta":-101,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-948.7705551742538,"baselineCashFlow":-740.9834589462682,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.842266095354277,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":106661.47355713966,"totalCashOutlay":215984.75687609715,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (GA avg 0.66%/yr)","homeValueAfter":402061.94879915606,"equityBuilt":218320.44991436644,"netCostOfBuying":48260.90696173071,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":58400.56659540895},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.301700391089951,"price":252983,"medianIncome":58810,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.755,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($1,679 tax ÷ $222,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":252983,"secondary":222500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1160,"secondary":995,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":222500,"high":252983}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":995,"high":1160}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":222500,"high":252983}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":995,"high":1160}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Bulloch County, GA is a moderate market — a 18.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Bulloch County, GA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Bulloch County's 18.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Bulloch County?","a":"The typical home value in Bulloch County is about $252,983 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.9% year-over-year, and up 39.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Bulloch County?","a":"The typical rent in Bulloch County is about $1,160/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Bulloch County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Bulloch County — roughly $58,401 ahead of renting, with about $218,320 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Bulloch County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Bulloch County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Bulloch County?","a":"Bulloch County's effective property tax rate is about 0.76% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.76% ($1,679 tax ÷ $222,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $252,983 median home is roughly $159/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Bulloch County, GA was $252,983 as of April 2026, up 1.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Bulloch County, GA was $1,160/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Bulloch County, GA has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=bulloch-ga","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=bulloch-ga"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:57:56.446Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":252983,"countyFmr":1160,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"GA","stateName":"Georgia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}