{"area":{"county":"Buena Vista County","state":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","slug":"buena-vista-ia","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":140820},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":144557},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":148147},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":152677},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":158380},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":159500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":160601},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":163755},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":164851},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":167933},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":169899},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":172550},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":174306},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":175680},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":178464},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":179065},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":182078},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":183086},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":185023},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":185634},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":186172}],"latest":186172,"yoy":2.2484869122024627,"fiveYr":32.205652606163895,"sinceStart":280.6186494387995,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1031}],"latest":1031,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":71719,"population":20753,"povertyRate":7.787485480531286,"medianHomeValue":159500,"medianGrossRent":894,"medianPropertyTax":1931},"hud":{"county":"Buena Vista County","year":"2027","perUnit":1031,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Iowa","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":13982,"ratePer100k":215.67255532027266},"propertyCrime":{"total":68730,"ratePer100k":1060.161259273519},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":5.743413309797751,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":186172,"monthlyRent":1031,"grossRent":1031,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"IA","down":37234.4,"loan":148937.6,"mortgagePI":966.0064386743828,"monthlyTax":187.8785766666667,"taxRatePct":1.211,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.21% ($1,931 tax ÷ $159,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":89.98313333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":51.550000000000004,"egi":979.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":103.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":51.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":51.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":484.06171000000006,"noi":495.38829,"totalExpenses":1450.0681486743829,"cashFlow":-470.61814867438284,"annualCf":-5647.417784092594,"cocReturn":-15.167205014966251,"capRate":3.1931007240616207},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-547.9431486743829,"delta":-77,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-501.5481486743829,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-493.1139320077162,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-623.5301596749499,"delta":-153,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −3.5% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-04-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-497.99613805246656,"delta":-27,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-623.5301596749499,"baselineCashFlow":-470.61814867438284,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":5.743413309797751,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":94799.98210121639,"totalCashOutlay":166134.99706065326,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (IA avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":275224.847036195,"equityBuilt":140008.16318637485,"netCostOfBuying":63361.233874278405,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":31438.748226937983},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.5958532606422287,"price":186172,"medianIncome":71719,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.211,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.21% ($1,931 tax ÷ $159,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":186172,"secondary":159500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1031,"secondary":894,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":159500,"high":186172}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":894,"high":1031}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":159500,"high":186172}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":894,"high":1031}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Buena Vista County, IA is a moderate market — a 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Buena Vista County, IA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Buena Vista County's 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Buena Vista County?","a":"The typical home value in Buena Vista County is about $186,172 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 2.2% year-over-year, and up 32.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Buena Vista County?","a":"The typical rent in Buena Vista County is about $1,031/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Buena Vista County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Buena Vista County — roughly $31,439 ahead of renting, with about $140,008 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Buena Vista County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Buena Vista County's median home value is 2.6x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Buena Vista County?","a":"Buena Vista County's effective property tax rate is about 1.21% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.21% ($1,931 tax ÷ $159,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $186,172 median home is roughly $188/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Buena Vista County, IA was $186,172 as of April 2026, up 2.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Buena Vista County, IA was $1,031/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Buena Vista County, IA has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=buena-vista-ia","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=buena-vista-ia"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T11:24:48.408Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":186172,"countyFmr":1031,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"IA","stateName":"Iowa","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}