{"area":{"county":"Brazos County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"brazos-tx","metro":"College Station-Bryan, TX MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":236270},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":253847},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":256163},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":266785},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":283364},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":296000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":280277},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":295530},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":305439},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":308216},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":308199},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":310532},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":315843},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":314970},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":314761},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":323453},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":344043},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":318016},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":327858},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":330937},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":336374}],"latest":336374,"yoy":-2.229081829887543,"fiveYr":42.36847674270961,"sinceStart":318.3548082184966,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1151}],"latest":1151,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":58553,"population":242311,"povertyRate":24.266464055062684,"medianHomeValue":296000,"medianGrossRent":1193,"medianPropertyTax":4568},"hud":{"county":"Brazos County","year":"2027","perUnit":1151,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":200412,"ratePer100k":316.00935243374596},"propertyCrime":{"total":1038472,"ratePer100k":1637.4611512313488},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":24.4,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":7.3215579358584915,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":336374,"monthlyRent":1151,"grossRent":1151,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":67274.8,"loan":269099.2,"mortgagePI":1745.372289080296,"monthlyTax":432.5209016666667,"taxRatePct":1.543,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.54% ($4,568 tax ÷ $296,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":238.26491666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.550000000000004,"egi":1093.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":115.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":900.9858183333333,"noi":192.46418166666672,"totalExpenses":2646.358107413629,"cashFlow":-1552.9081074136293,"annualCf":-18634.89728896355,"cocReturn":-27.69966954783002,"capRate":0.6866078174888667},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1639.233107413629,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1587.4381074136293,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1612.474336580296,"delta":-60,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1829.1882397015393,"delta":-276,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1983-07-01) (home values −12.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1987-01-01 → 1988-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1656.2210646440294,"delta":-103,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1829.1882397015393,"baselineCashFlow":-1552.9081074136293,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":7.3215579358584915,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105833.92764161018,"totalCashOutlay":315307.12555098056,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":551608.8166432399,"equityBuilt":307300.45226352976,"netCostOfBuying":75281.47328745079,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":30552.45435415939},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.74477823510324,"price":336374,"medianIncome":58553,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.543,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.54% ($4,568 tax ÷ $296,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":336374,"secondary":296000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.14,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1151,"secondary":1193,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":0.96,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":296000,"high":336374}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.96,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1151,"high":1193}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 7.3%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.14,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":296000,"high":336374}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.96,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1151,"high":1193}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Brazos County, TX is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 24.4x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Brazos County, TX a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 24.4x, Brazos County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Brazos County?","a":"The typical home value in Brazos County is about $336,374 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 2.2% year-over-year, and up 42.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Brazos County?","a":"The typical rent in Brazos County is about $1,151/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Brazos County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Brazos County — roughly $30,552 ahead of renting, with about $307,300 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Brazos County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Brazos County's median home value is 5.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Brazos County?","a":"Brazos County's effective property tax rate is about 1.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.54% ($4,568 tax ÷ $296,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $336,374 median home is roughly $433/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Brazos County, TX was $336,374 as of April 2026, down 2.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Brazos County, TX was $1,151/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Brazos County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 24.4 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=brazos-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=brazos-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:50:36.924Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, College Station-Bryan, TX MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"College Station-Bryan, TX MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":336374,"countyFmr":1151,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"College Station-Bryan, TX MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}