{"area":{"county":"Braxton County","state":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","slug":"braxton-wv","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":104624},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":108930},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":111361},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":115723},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":119069},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":117900},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":118010},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":121309},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":121550},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":125764},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":132650},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":125137},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":134912},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":132045},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":137224},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":136610},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":138439},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":139977},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":137791},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":143432},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":146168}],"latest":146168,"yoy":5.582964338083921,"fiveYr":39.7079064077076,"sinceStart":245.15100710760586,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":944}],"latest":944,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":50331,"population":12208,"povertyRate":20.415283805633564,"medianHomeValue":117900,"medianGrossRent":606,"medianPropertyTax":535},"hud":{"county":"Braxton County","year":"2027","perUnit":944,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"West Virginia","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7321,"ratePer100k":206.81036328679608},"propertyCrime":{"total":30696,"ratePer100k":867.1289320381767},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.917346893835008,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":146168,"monthlyRent":944,"grossRent":944,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WV","down":29233.600000000002,"loan":116934.4,"mortgagePI":758.4342926334635,"monthlyTax":55.30022666666667,"taxRatePct":0.454,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($535 tax ÷ $117,900 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":63.33946666666666,"insuranceRatePct":0.52,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":47.2,"egi":896.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":94.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":47.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":47.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":307.4396933333333,"noi":589.3603066666667,"totalExpenses":1065.873985966797,"cashFlow":-169.07398596679684,"annualCf":-2028.887831601562,"cocReturn":-6.940259946094775,"capRate":4.838489737835915},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-239.8739859667969,"delta":-71,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-197.39398596679678,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-184.90885263346365,"delta":-16,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-289.1287891806577,"delta":-120,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.7% over 3 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2023-10-01 → 2024-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-209.17352611003105,"delta":-40,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-289.1287891806577,"baselineCashFlow":-169.07398596679684,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.917346893835008,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":86800.37158443093,"totalCashOutlay":119060.3151463113,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WV avg 0.52%/yr)","homeValueAfter":233447.65639678767,"equityBuilt":127285.86920558535,"netCostOfBuying":21008.045940725962,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":65792.32564370497},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.9041346287576246,"price":146168,"medianIncome":50331,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.454,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($535 tax ÷ $117,900 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":146168,"secondary":117900,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.24,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":944,"secondary":606,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.56,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":117900,"high":146168}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.56,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":606,"high":944}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.9%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.24,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":117900,"high":146168}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.56,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":606,"high":944}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Braxton County, WV leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Braxton County, WV a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Braxton County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Braxton County?","a":"The typical home value in Braxton County is about $146,168 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 5.6% year-over-year, and up 39.7% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Braxton County?","a":"The typical rent in Braxton County is about $944/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Braxton County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Braxton County — roughly $65,792 ahead of renting, with about $127,286 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Braxton County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Braxton County's median home value is 2.9x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Braxton County?","a":"Braxton County's effective property tax rate is about 0.45% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.45% ($535 tax ÷ $117,900 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $146,168 median home is roughly $55/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Braxton County, WV was $146,168 as of April 2026, up 5.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Braxton County, WV was $944/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Braxton County, WV has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.9 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=braxton-wv","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=braxton-wv"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T09:11:36.804Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":146168,"countyFmr":944,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WV","stateName":"West Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}