{"area":{"county":"Bradford County","state":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","slug":"bradford-pa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":166640},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":172047},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":176826},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":183036},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":186280},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":187500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":189747},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":191680},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":195577},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":200470},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":203037},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":205430},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":209664},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":212093},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":215681},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":219209},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":220019},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":222199},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":224658},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":227425},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":228669}],"latest":228669,"yoy":3.931478645026111,"fiveYr":37.22335573691791,"sinceStart":278.5283893395133,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1100}],"latest":1100,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":63675,"population":59858,"povertyRate":12.645621628933263,"medianHomeValue":187500,"medianGrossRent":901,"medianPropertyTax":2044},"hud":{"county":"Bradford County","year":"2027","perUnit":1100,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Pennsylvania","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":55584,"ratePer100k":212.4973554431918},"propertyCrime":{"total":327305,"ratePer100k":1251.285386502121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.53427880224422,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":228669,"monthlyRent":1100,"grossRent":1100,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"PA","down":45733.8,"loan":182935.2,"mortgagePI":1186.5142251532586,"monthlyTax":207.707675,"taxRatePct":1.09,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,044 tax ÷ $187,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":83.84530000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.44,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":55,"egi":1045,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":110,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":55,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":55,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":511.552975,"noi":533.4470249999999,"totalExpenses":1698.0672001532587,"cashFlow":-653.0672001532587,"annualCf":-7836.806401839104,"cocReturn":-17.135699202426004,"capRate":2.7994018865696706},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-735.5672001532587,"delta":-82,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-686.0672001532587,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-674.0285251532587,"delta":-21,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-840.8840396537673,"delta":-188,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −5.0% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-694.0609026907657,"delta":-41,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-840.8840396537673,"baselineCashFlow":-653.0672001532587,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.53427880224422,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":101144.50078694282,"totalCashOutlay":201393.4508311963,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (PA avg 0.44%/yr)","homeValueAfter":356149.94696609443,"equityBuilt":190067.7010899448,"netCostOfBuying":57059.54974125148,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":44084.95104569134},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.5911896348645467,"price":228669,"medianIncome":63675,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.09,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,044 tax ÷ $187,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":228669,"secondary":187500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1100,"secondary":901,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":187500,"high":228669}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":901,"high":1100}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":187500,"high":228669}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":901,"high":1100}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Bradford County, PA is a moderate market — a 17.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Bradford County, PA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Bradford County's 17.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Bradford County?","a":"The typical home value in Bradford County is about $228,669 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.9% year-over-year, and up 37.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Bradford County?","a":"The typical rent in Bradford County is about $1,100/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Bradford County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Bradford County — roughly $44,085 ahead of renting, with about $190,068 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Bradford County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Bradford County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Bradford County?","a":"Bradford County's effective property tax rate is about 1.09% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.09% ($2,044 tax ÷ $187,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $228,669 median home is roughly $208/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Bradford County, PA was $228,669 as of April 2026, up 3.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Bradford County, PA was $1,100/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Bradford County, PA has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=bradford-pa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=bradford-pa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:46:09.292Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":228669,"countyFmr":1100,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"PA","stateName":"Pennsylvania","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}