{"area":{"county":"Botetourt County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"botetourt-va","metro":"Roanoke, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":236063},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":249003},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":254895},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":261717},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":281365},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":289200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":286947},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":286461},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":302316},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":308456},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":312291},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":321552},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":324869},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":332900},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":335040},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":339960},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":345490},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":345727},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":353996},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":354472},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":357025}],"latest":357025,"yoy":3.3387362875915363,"fiveYr":51.24140589588373,"sinceStart":642.1939963412606,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1464}],"latest":1464,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":81213,"population":34004,"povertyRate":6.158654561690727,"medianHomeValue":289200,"medianGrossRent":1035,"medianPropertyTax":1862},"hud":{"county":"Botetourt County","year":"2027","perUnit":1464,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.3,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.627318993960165,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":357025,"monthlyRent":1464,"grossRent":1464,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":71405,"loan":285620,"mortgagePI":1852.5258834181377,"monthlyTax":191.60341666666667,"taxRatePct":0.644,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.64% ($1,862 tax ÷ $289,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":166.6116666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":73.2,"egi":1390.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":146.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":73.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":73.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":651.0150833333335,"noi":739.7849166666665,"totalExpenses":2503.5409667514714,"cashFlow":-1112.7409667514712,"annualCf":-13352.891601017654,"cocReturn":-18.700219313798268,"capRate":2.486497864295217},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1222.540966751471,"delta":-110,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1156.660966751471,"delta":-44,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1154.3938834181379,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1405.9827578235845,"delta":-293,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1979-07-01) (home values −23.5% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1981-04-01 → 1982-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1370.9920486850147,"delta":-258,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1405.9827578235845,"baselineCashFlow":-1112.7409667514712,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.627318993960165,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":134614.13559280385,"totalCashOutlay":303332.7073904517,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":637194.5527517976,"equityBuilt":377887.3714813485,"netCostOfBuying":-3149.66409089684,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":137763.7996837007},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.3961557878664745,"price":357025,"medianIncome":81213,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.644,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.64% ($1,862 tax ÷ $289,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":357025,"secondary":289200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1464,"secondary":1035,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.41,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":289200,"high":357025}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.41,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1035,"high":1464}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":289200,"high":357025}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.41,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1035,"high":1464}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Botetourt County, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.3x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Botetourt County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.3x, Botetourt County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Botetourt County?","a":"The typical home value in Botetourt County is about $357,025 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 3.3% year-over-year, and up 51.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Botetourt County?","a":"The typical rent in Botetourt County is about $1,464/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Botetourt County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Botetourt County — roughly $137,764 ahead of renting, with about $377,887 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Botetourt County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Botetourt County's median home value is 4.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Botetourt County?","a":"Botetourt County's effective property tax rate is about 0.64% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.64% ($1,862 tax ÷ $289,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $357,025 median home is roughly $192/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Botetourt County, VA was $357,025 as of April 2026, up 3.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Botetourt County, VA was $1,464/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Botetourt County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.3 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=botetourt-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=botetourt-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:09:31.265Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Roanoke, VA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Roanoke, VA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":357025,"countyFmr":1464,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Roanoke, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}