{"area":{"county":"Bland County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"bland-va","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":133352},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":138076},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":142138},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":148025},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":151506},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":152100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":154048},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":156429},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":158976},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":162766},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":165130},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":166480},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":170678},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":172724},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":174816},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":178085},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":177584},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":179439},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":181366},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":182435},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":183085}],"latest":183085,"yoy":3.097688980989278,"fiveYr":37.294528765972764,"sinceStart":331.34644834491695,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":943}],"latest":943,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61216,"population":6199,"povertyRate":13.58322508814251,"medianHomeValue":152100,"medianGrossRent":644,"medianPropertyTax":846},"hud":{"county":"Bland County","year":"2027","perUnit":943,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":16.2,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 16.2× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.545329155348045,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":183085,"monthlyRent":943,"grossRent":943,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":36617,"loan":146468,"mortgagePI":949.988660081534,"monthlyTax":84.82938333333334,"taxRatePct":0.556,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($846 tax ÷ $152,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":85.43966666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":47.150000000000006,"egi":895.85,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":94.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":47.150000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":47.150000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":358.86905,"noi":536.98095,"totalExpenses":1308.8577100815342,"cashFlow":-413.007710081534,"annualCf":-4956.092520978408,"cocReturn":-13.534949670858913,"capRate":3.519551792883087},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-483.7327100815339,"delta":-71,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-441.2977100815341,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-434.3676267482007,"delta":-21,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-563.3842196213083,"delta":-150,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −11.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-493.6327175473407,"delta":-81,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-563.3842196213083,"baselineCashFlow":-413.007710081534,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.545329155348045,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":86708.42203826098,"totalCashOutlay":153136.45273632577,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":285360.37844145106,"equityBuilt":152385.78203251553,"netCostOfBuying":37367.67070381023,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":49340.751334450746},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.990803058024046,"price":183085,"medianIncome":61216,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.556,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($846 tax ÷ $152,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":183085,"secondary":152100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.2,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":943,"secondary":644,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.46,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":152100,"high":183085}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.46,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":644,"high":943}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.2,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":152100,"high":183085}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.46,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":644,"high":943}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Bland County, VA is a moderate market — a 16.2x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Bland County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Bland County's 16.2x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Bland County?","a":"The typical home value in Bland County is about $183,085 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.1% year-over-year, and up 37.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Bland County?","a":"The typical rent in Bland County is about $943/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Bland County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Bland County — roughly $49,341 ahead of renting, with about $152,386 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Bland County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Bland County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Bland County?","a":"Bland County's effective property tax rate is about 0.56% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.56% ($846 tax ÷ $152,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $183,085 median home is roughly $85/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Bland County, VA was $183,085 as of April 2026, up 3.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Bland County, VA was $943/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Bland County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 16.2 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=bland-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=bland-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T21:43:17.981Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":183085,"countyFmr":943,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}