{"area":{"county":"Blaine County","state":"ID","stateName":"Idaho","slug":"blaine-id","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":641164},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":681539},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":706104},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":735532},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":757036},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":735300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":723512},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":720562},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":729631},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":736007},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":739030},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":749587},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":739030},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":764277},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":780320},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":770494},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":771226},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":776529},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":773335},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":793315},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":799106}],"latest":799106,"yoy":3.615023352428471,"fiveYr":24.633635076205152,"sinceStart":555.5099831017342,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1673}],"latest":1673,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":92566,"population":24951,"povertyRate":6.637060960839726,"medianHomeValue":735300,"medianGrossRent":1338,"medianPropertyTax":2778},"hud":{"county":"Blaine County","year":"2027","perUnit":1673,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Idaho","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7778,"ratePer100k":191.60155547552313},"propertyCrime":{"total":21490,"ratePer100k":529.3799726367951},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":39.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":4.503219700643646,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":799106,"monthlyRent":1673,"grossRent":1673,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"ID","down":159821.2,"loan":639284.8,"mortgagePI":4146.389044449925,"monthlyTax":251.71839,"taxRatePct":0.378,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.38% ($2,778 tax ÷ $735,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":332.96083333333337,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ID avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":83.65,"egi":1589.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":167.3,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":83.65,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":83.65,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":919.2792233333332,"noi":670.0707766666667,"totalExpenses":5065.668267783258,"cashFlow":-3476.3182677832583,"annualCf":-41715.819213399096,"cocReturn":-26.101555496641932,"capRate":1.0062306277264843},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3601.793267783258,"delta":-125,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3526.508267783258,"delta":-50,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3559.5584761165915,"delta":-83,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-4132.66243050708,"delta":-656,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −13.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3650.1889417735115,"delta":-174,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-4132.66243050708,"baselineCashFlow":-3476.3182677832583,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.503219700643646,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":153831.59074232302,"totalCashOutlay":641420.4905093237,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ID avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":1087707.4148998095,"equityBuilt":507316.8977194906,"netCostOfBuying":293924.7927898331,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":140093.20204751007},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":8.632824147095045,"price":799106,"medianIncome":92566,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.378,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.38% ($2,778 tax ÷ $735,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":799106,"secondary":735300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1673,"secondary":1338,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":735300,"high":799106}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1338,"high":1673}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":735300,"high":799106}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1338,"high":1673}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Blaine County, ID is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 39.8x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Blaine County, ID a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 39.8x, Blaine County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Blaine County?","a":"The typical home value in Blaine County is about $799,106 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.6% year-over-year, and up 24.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Blaine County?","a":"The typical rent in Blaine County is about $1,673/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Blaine County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Blaine County by about $140,093 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Blaine County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Blaine County's median home value is 8.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Blaine County?","a":"Blaine County's effective property tax rate is about 0.38% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.38% ($2,778 tax ÷ $735,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $799,106 median home is roughly $252/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Blaine County, ID was $799,106 as of April 2026, up 3.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Blaine County, ID was $1,673/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Blaine County, ID has a price-to-rent ratio of 39.8 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=blaine-id","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=blaine-id"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:33:42.448Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":799106,"countyFmr":1673,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"ID","stateName":"Idaho","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}