{"area":{"county":"Berkshire County","state":"MA","stateName":"Massachusetts","slug":"berkshire-ma","metro":"Pittsfield, MA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":247597},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":263682},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":271424},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":277293},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":281620},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":305400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":312079},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":295655},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":302522},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":330214},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":331606},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":337457},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":351369},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":339677},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":336498},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":344333},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":361782},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":357296},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":356825},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":365263},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":384659}],"latest":384659,"yoy":6.3234212868523025,"fiveYr":55.356890430821046,"sinceStart":345.06809214712996,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1704}],"latest":1704,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":76013,"population":129430,"povertyRate":11.427534478586983,"medianHomeValue":305400,"medianGrossRent":1097,"medianPropertyTax":4036},"hud":{"county":"Berkshire County","year":"2027","perUnit":1704,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Massachusetts","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":37267,"ratePer100k":260.45961998768814},"propertyCrime":{"total":127139,"ratePer100k":888.5763712027983},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":18.8,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 18.8× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":9.212247104487226,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":384659,"monthlyRent":1704,"grossRent":1704,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MA","down":76931.8,"loan":307727.2,"mortgagePI":1995.9127618226662,"monthlyTax":423.76599833333336,"taxRatePct":1.322,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.32% ($4,036 tax ÷ $305,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":153.8636,"insuranceRatePct":0.48,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MA avg 0.48%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":85.2,"egi":1618.8,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":170.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":85.2,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":85.2,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":918.4295983333334,"noi":700.3704016666666,"totalExpenses":2914.342360156,"cashFlow":-1295.5423601559996,"annualCf":-15546.508321871996,"cocReturn":-20.208169212044947,"capRate":2.1849078846458805},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1423.3423601559996,"delta":-128,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1346.6623601559995,"delta":-51,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1334.0082601559998,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1611.4812835143307,"delta":-316,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-04-01) (home values −9.7% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1994-04-01 → 1995-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1420.0018569606518,"delta":-124,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1611.4812835143307,"baselineCashFlow":-1295.5423601559996,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":9.212247104487226,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":156682.0266735914,"totalCashOutlay":333998.2810651976,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MA avg 0.48%/yr)","homeValueAfter":712812.4879430871,"equityBuilt":433434.7383728619,"netCostOfBuying":-22504.65730766428,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":179186.6839812557},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.06043703050794,"price":384659,"medianIncome":76013,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.322,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.32% ($4,036 tax ÷ $305,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":384659,"secondary":305400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.26,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1704,"secondary":1097,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.55,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":305400,"high":384659}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.55,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1097,"high":1704}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 9.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.26,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":305400,"high":384659}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.55,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1097,"high":1704}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Berkshire County, MA is a moderate market — a 18.8x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Berkshire County, MA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Berkshire County's 18.8x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Berkshire County?","a":"The typical home value in Berkshire County is about $384,659 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.3% year-over-year, and up 55.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Berkshire County?","a":"The typical rent in Berkshire County is about $1,704/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Berkshire County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Berkshire County — roughly $179,187 ahead of renting, with about $433,435 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Berkshire County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Berkshire County's median home value is 5.1x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Berkshire County?","a":"Berkshire County's effective property tax rate is about 1.32% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.32% ($4,036 tax ÷ $305,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $384,659 median home is roughly $424/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Berkshire County, MA was $384,659 as of April 2026, up 6.3% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Berkshire County, MA was $1,704/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Berkshire County, MA has a price-to-rent ratio of 18.8 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=berkshire-ma","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=berkshire-ma"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:46:39.777Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Pittsfield, MA HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Pittsfield, MA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":384659,"countyFmr":1704,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Pittsfield, MA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"MA","stateName":"Massachusetts","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}