{"area":{"county":"Bandera County","state":"TX","stateName":"Texas","slug":"bandera-tx","metro":"San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":231369},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":243767},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":255917},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":263611},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":274871},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":278400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":279847},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":272710},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":272625},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":273945},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":276814},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":278200},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":281427},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":268085},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":277988},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":278049},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":278921},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":274780},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":270663},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":269071},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":270452}],"latest":270452,"yoy":-3.0363436241803234,"fiveYr":16.892064191832095,"sinceStart":346.7622571692877,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1441}],"latest":1441,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":75813,"population":22021,"povertyRate":13.469971841388542,"medianHomeValue":278400,"medianGrossRent":1149,"medianPropertyTax":2438},"hud":{"county":"Bandera County","year":"2027","perUnit":1441,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Texas","period":"11-2023 to 10-2025","window":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"violentCrime":{"total":236610,"ratePer100k":373.0863066051366},"propertyCrime":{"total":1238795,"ratePer100k":1953.3301685935094},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2023","to":"10-2025","fellBack":true},"priceToRentRatio":15.6,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.6× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.1712902179234836,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":270452,"monthlyRent":1441,"grossRent":1441,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":54090.4,"loan":216361.6,"mortgagePI":1403.3172193045364,"monthlyTax":197.42996000000002,"taxRatePct":0.876,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.88% ($2,438 tax ÷ $278,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":191.57016666666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":72.05,"egi":1368.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":144.1,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":72.05,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":72.05,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":677.2001266666666,"noi":691.7498733333334,"totalExpenses":2080.517345971203,"cashFlow":-711.5673459712029,"annualCf":-8538.808151654435,"cocReturn":-15.786180452824224,"capRate":3.069305636490025},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-819.6423459712031,"delta":-108,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-754.797345971203,"delta":-43,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-759.4598876378697,"delta":-48,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-933.702571456912,"delta":-222,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −7.5% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-792.1915752912923,"delta":-81,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-933.702571456912,"baselineCashFlow":-711.5673459712029,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.1712902179234836,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":132499.29603089506,"totalCashOutlay":243836.15975661008,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":336513.2966695,"equityBuilt":140084.06681457255,"netCostOfBuying":157842.49294203753,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":25343.19691114247},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.5673565219685277,"price":270452,"medianIncome":75813,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.876,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.88% ($2,438 tax ÷ $278,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":270452,"secondary":278400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":0.97,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1441,"secondary":1149,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.97,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":270452,"high":278400}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1149,"high":1441}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.97,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":270452,"high":278400}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1149,"high":1441}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Bandera County, TX is a moderate market — a 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Bandera County, TX a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Bandera County's 15.6x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Bandera County?","a":"The typical home value in Bandera County is about $270,452 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 3.0% year-over-year, and up 16.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Bandera County?","a":"The typical rent in Bandera County is about $1,441/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Bandera County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Bandera County by about $25,343 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Bandera County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Bandera County's median home value is 3.6x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Bandera County?","a":"Bandera County's effective property tax rate is about 0.88% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.88% ($2,438 tax ÷ $278,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $270,452 median home is roughly $197/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Bandera County, TX was $270,452 as of April 2026, down 3.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Bandera County, TX was $1,441/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Bandera County, TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.6 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=bandera-tx","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=bandera-tx"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:47:02.103Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":270452,"countyFmr":1441,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"San Antonio-New Braunfels, TX HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"TX","stateName":"Texas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}