{"area":{"county":"Ballard County","state":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","slug":"ballard-ky","metro":"Ballard County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":123455},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":127718},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":132634},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":135817},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":144085},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":145800},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":145009},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":155801},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":158410},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":153108},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":150674},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":150275},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":160149},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":163441},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":164516},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":162154},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":163253},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":168188},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":170042},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":169963},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":181836}],"latest":181836,"yoy":11.382945489516272,"fiveYr":47.289295694787576,"sinceStart":272.4544765572192,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1180}],"latest":1180,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66164,"population":7654,"povertyRate":15.008656279131708,"medianHomeValue":145800,"medianGrossRent":817,"medianPropertyTax":1065},"hud":{"county":"Ballard County","year":"2027","perUnit":1180,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Kentucky","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":17727,"ratePer100k":192.39769179207374},"propertyCrime":{"total":107926,"ratePer100k":1171.3608215914342},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":12.8,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.053500787347744,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":181836,"monthlyRent":1180,"grossRent":1180,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"KY","down":36367.200000000004,"loan":145468.8,"mortgagePI":943.5078679006244,"monthlyTax":110.6169,"taxRatePct":0.73,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,065 tax ÷ $145,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":87.8874,"insuranceRatePct":0.58,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":59,"egi":1121,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":118,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":59,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":59,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":434.5043,"noi":686.4956999999999,"totalExpenses":1378.0121679006245,"cashFlow":-257.0121679006245,"annualCf":-3084.146014807494,"cocReturn":-8.480570444817015,"capRate":4.530427638091466},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-345.5121679006245,"delta":-88,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-292.4121679006246,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-278.9840179006244,"delta":-22,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-406.36281371363157,"delta":-149,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1990-04-01) (home values −5.1% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2023-04-01 → 2024-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-302.4605297464675,"delta":-45,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-406.36281371363157,"baselineCashFlow":-257.0121679006245,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.053500787347744,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":108500.46448053865,"totalCashOutlay":154787.8944896149,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (KY avg 0.58%/yr)","homeValueAfter":312717.1959841642,"equityBuilt":180649.74800855073,"netCostOfBuying":10505.346481064189,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":97995.11799947446},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.748261894685932,"price":181836,"medianIncome":66164,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.73,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,065 tax ÷ $145,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":181836,"secondary":145800,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.25,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1180,"secondary":817,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.44,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":145800,"high":181836}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.44,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":817,"high":1180}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.25,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":145800,"high":181836}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.44,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":817,"high":1180}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Ballard County, KY leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Ballard County, KY a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Ballard County's price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Ballard County?","a":"The typical home value in Ballard County is about $181,836 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 11.4% year-over-year, and up 47.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Ballard County?","a":"The typical rent in Ballard County is about $1,180/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Ballard County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Ballard County — roughly $97,995 ahead of renting, with about $180,650 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Ballard County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Ballard County's median home value is 2.7x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Ballard County?","a":"Ballard County's effective property tax rate is about 0.73% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,065 tax ÷ $145,800 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $181,836 median home is roughly $111/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Ballard County, KY was $181,836 as of April 2026, up 11.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Ballard County, KY was $1,180/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Ballard County, KY has a price-to-rent ratio of 12.8 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=ballard-ky","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=ballard-ky"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:26:12.378Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Ballard County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Ballard County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":181836,"countyFmr":1180,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Ballard County, KY HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"KY","stateName":"Kentucky","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}