{"area":{"county":"Baker County","state":"FL","stateName":"Florida","slug":"baker-fl","metro":"Baker County, FL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":200307},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":215751},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":230687},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":236346},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":256213},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":256700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":253355},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":253355},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":261518},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":268029},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":265771},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":266300},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":267305},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":267957},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":273303},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":274955},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":269306},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":265330},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":267116},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":268096},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":268311}],"latest":268311,"yoy":-0.36946818860329883,"fiveYr":33.949886923572315,"sinceStart":422.9418414282373,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1110}],"latest":1110,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":79836,"population":28430,"povertyRate":11.755139969799048,"medianHomeValue":256700,"medianGrossRent":1302,"medianPropertyTax":1631},"hud":{"county":"Baker County","year":"2027","perUnit":1110,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Florida","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":99304,"ratePer100k":211.62263999115524},"propertyCrime":{"total":424862,"ratePer100k":905.4058051228773},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.021012210338994,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":268311,"monthlyRent":1110,"grossRent":1110,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"FL","down":53662.200000000004,"loan":214648.8,"mortgagePI":1392.208031106516,"monthlyTax":141.9812375,"taxRatePct":0.635,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.64% ($1,631 tax ÷ $256,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":234.772125,"insuranceRatePct":1.05,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":55.5,"egi":1054.5,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":111,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":55.5,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":55.5,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":598.7533625,"noi":455.7466375,"totalExpenses":1990.9613936065161,"cashFlow":-936.461393606516,"annualCf":-11237.536723278192,"cocReturn":-20.941252358789225,"capRate":2.038291255297025},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1019.7113936065161,"delta":-83,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-969.761393606516,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-995.154424856516,"delta":-59,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1156.838112896061,"delta":-220,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −20.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1106.6962861592478,"delta":-170,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1156.838112896061,"baselineCashFlow":-936.461393606516,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.021012210338994,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":102063.9962486423,"totalCashOutlay":233933.90642683627,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (FL avg 1.05%/yr)","homeValueAfter":404000.68504846335,"equityBuilt":209126.46303640405,"netCostOfBuying":78469.64339043223,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":23594.35285821007},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.3607770930407335,"price":268311,"medianIncome":79836,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.635,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.64% ($1,631 tax ÷ $256,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":268311,"secondary":256700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1110,"secondary":1302,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":0.85,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":256700,"high":268311}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.85,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1110,"high":1302}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":256700,"high":268311}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.85,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1110,"high":1302}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Baker County, FL is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Baker County, FL a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.1x, Baker County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Baker County?","a":"The typical home value in Baker County is about $268,311 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 0.4% year-over-year, and up 33.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Baker County?","a":"The typical rent in Baker County is about $1,110/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Baker County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Baker County — roughly $23,594 ahead of renting, with about $209,126 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Baker County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Baker County's median home value is 3.4x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Baker County?","a":"Baker County's effective property tax rate is about 0.64% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.64% ($1,631 tax ÷ $256,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $268,311 median home is roughly $142/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Baker County, FL was $268,311 as of April 2026, down 0.4% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Baker County, FL was $1,110/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Baker County, FL has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=baker-fl","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=baker-fl"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T16:08:36.421Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Baker County, FL HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Baker County, FL HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":268311,"countyFmr":1110,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Baker County, FL HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"FL","stateName":"Florida","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}