{"area":{"county":"Atlantic County","state":"NJ","stateName":"New Jersey","slug":"atlantic-nj","metro":"Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":232759},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":245977},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":256964},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":267420},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":287396},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":295000},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":290127},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":297191},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":311972},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":318424},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":325561},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":336540},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":343612},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":347769},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":361285},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":356154},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":370347},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":371386},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":385515},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":382099},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":393159}],"latest":393159,"yoy":6.159628672569239,"fiveYr":68.91248029077286,"sinceStart":863.8376112377731,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1899}],"latest":1899,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":78050,"population":276270,"povertyRate":13.17794180217178,"medianHomeValue":295000,"medianGrossRent":1376,"medianPropertyTax":6776},"hud":{"county":"Atlantic County","year":"2027","perUnit":1899,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"New Jersey","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":31890,"ratePer100k":166.99456390540013},"propertyCrime":{"total":205468,"ratePer100k":1075.9497979465273},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":17.3,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 17.3× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":11.055118973643353,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":393159,"monthlyRent":1899,"grossRent":1899,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NJ","down":78631.8,"loan":314527.2,"mortgagePI":2040.0174323893048,"monthlyTax":752.5718525000001,"taxRatePct":2.297,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.30% ($6,776 tax ÷ $295,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":163.81625,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NJ avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":94.95,"egi":1804.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":189.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":94.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":94.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1296.1881025000002,"noi":507.8618974999997,"totalExpenses":3336.205534889305,"cashFlow":-1532.155534889305,"annualCf":-18385.86641867166,"cocReturn":-23.382227570361685,"capRate":1.5500962129825329},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1674.5805348893045,"delta":-142,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1589.125534889305,"delta":-57,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1573.109597389305,"delta":-41,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1855.0759167564604,"delta":-323,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1979-10-01) (home values −23.0% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1982-01-01 → 1982-07-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1859.0751007317426,"delta":-327,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1859.0751007317426,"baselineCashFlow":-1532.155534889305,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":11.055118973643353,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":174612.1881767313,"totalCashOutlay":393706.73826424195,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NJ avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":819102.5797751849,"equityBuilt":533551.2820198222,"netCostOfBuying":-61212.74375558022,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":235824.9319323115},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.037270980140935,"price":393159,"medianIncome":78050,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":2.297,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.30% ($6,776 tax ÷ $295,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":393159,"secondary":295000,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.33,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1899,"secondary":1376,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.38,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":295000,"high":393159}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.38,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1376,"high":1899}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 11.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.33,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":295000,"high":393159}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.38,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":1376,"high":1899}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Atlantic County, NJ is a moderate market — a 17.3x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Atlantic County, NJ a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Atlantic County's 17.3x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Atlantic County?","a":"The typical home value in Atlantic County is about $393,159 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 6.2% year-over-year, and up 68.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Atlantic County?","a":"The typical rent in Atlantic County is about $1,899/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Atlantic County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Atlantic County — roughly $235,825 ahead of renting, with about $533,551 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Atlantic County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Atlantic County's median home value is 5.0x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Atlantic County?","a":"Atlantic County's effective property tax rate is about 2.30% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 2.30% ($6,776 tax ÷ $295,000 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $393,159 median home is roughly $753/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Atlantic County, NJ was $393,159 as of April 2026, up 6.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Atlantic County, NJ was $1,899/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Atlantic County, NJ has a price-to-rent ratio of 17.3 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=atlantic-nj","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=atlantic-nj"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T00:09:22.434Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":393159,"countyFmr":1899,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Atlantic City-Hammonton, NJ HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"NJ","stateName":"New Jersey","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}