{"area":{"county":"Arkansas County","state":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","slug":"arkansas-ar","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":115520},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":120782},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":127554},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":131358},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":135768},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":138100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":139498},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":142187},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":143581},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":145212},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":147351},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":149562},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":151287},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":153409},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":153770},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":154480},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":157500},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":156627},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":159914},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":159200},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":159277}],"latest":159277,"yoy":1.1282539682539683,"fiveYr":37.87828947368421,"sinceStart":270.1877934272301,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":942}],"latest":942,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":53164,"population":16515,"povertyRate":19.018895796146982,"medianHomeValue":138100,"medianGrossRent":843,"medianPropertyTax":745},"hud":{"county":"Arkansas County","year":"2027","perUnit":942,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arkansas","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":30522,"ratePer100k":489.9526164034762},"propertyCrime":{"total":95748,"ratePer100k":1536.9891591442251},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":14.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":6.635791563742099,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":159277,"monthlyRent":942,"grossRent":942,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AR","down":31855.4,"loan":127421.6,"mortgagePI":826.4540722167654,"monthlyTax":71.54191916666667,"taxRatePct":0.539,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($745 tax ÷ $138,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":92.91158333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.7,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":47.1,"egi":894.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":94.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":47.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":47.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":352.85350250000005,"noi":542.0464975,"totalExpenses":1179.3075747167654,"cashFlow":-284.40757471676545,"annualCf":-3412.8908966011854,"cocReturn":-10.713696568246469,"capRate":4.083802413405576},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-355.0575747167654,"delta":-71,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-312.66757471676544,"delta":-28,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-307.63547055009883,"delta":-23,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-415.2294296473531,"delta":-131,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −6.6% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-10-01 → 2010-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-331.05368294508276,"delta":-47,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-415.2294296473531,"baselineCashFlow":-284.40757471676545,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.635791563742099,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":86616.47249209102,"totalCashOutlay":133038.628738738,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AR avg 0.7%/yr)","homeValueAfter":249731.91459092524,"equityBuilt":134049.06349866753,"netCostOfBuying":30844.96524007048,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":55771.50725202054},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.9959559100142954,"price":159277,"medianIncome":53164,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.539,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($745 tax ÷ $138,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":159277,"secondary":138100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":942,"secondary":843,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.12,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":138100,"high":159277}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":843,"high":942}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (229d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (15d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":229,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":15,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.15,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":138100,"high":159277}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.12,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":843,"high":942}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Arkansas County, AR leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 14.1 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Arkansas County, AR a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Arkansas County's price-to-rent ratio of 14.1 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Arkansas County?","a":"The typical home value in Arkansas County is about $159,277 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 1.1% year-over-year, and up 37.9% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Arkansas County?","a":"The typical rent in Arkansas County is about $942/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Arkansas County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Arkansas County — roughly $55,772 ahead of renting, with about $134,049 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Arkansas County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Arkansas County's median home value is 3.0x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Arkansas County?","a":"Arkansas County's effective property tax rate is about 0.54% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.54% ($745 tax ÷ $138,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $159,277 median home is roughly $72/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Arkansas County, AR was $159,277 as of April 2026, up 1.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Arkansas County, AR was $942/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Arkansas County, AR has a price-to-rent ratio of 14.1 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=arkansas-ar","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=arkansas-ar"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T12:20:45.702Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":159277,"countyFmr":942,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AR","stateName":"Arkansas","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}