{"area":{"county":"Appomattox County","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"appomattox-va","metro":"Lynchburg, VA MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":169405},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":178918},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":185872},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":190962},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":205447},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":207600},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":211373},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":216699},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":223321},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":219947},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":220524},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":226302},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":233781},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":235949},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":240114},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":239492},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":244604},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":249428},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":244878},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":251070},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":256204}],"latest":256204,"yoy":4.742359078347043,"fiveYr":51.23756677784008,"sinceStart":398.587163818939,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1117}],"latest":1117,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":62853,"population":16610,"povertyRate":13.993215410709958,"medianHomeValue":207600,"medianGrossRent":855,"medianPropertyTax":1073},"hud":{"county":"Appomattox County","year":"2027","perUnit":1117,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19.1,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.1× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.626767432792981,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":256204,"monthlyRent":1117,"grossRent":1117,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":51240.8,"loan":204963.2,"mortgagePI":1329.387413865305,"monthlyTax":110.38122333333332,"taxRatePct":0.517,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($1,073 tax ÷ $207,600 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":119.56186666666669,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":55.85,"egi":1061.15,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":111.7,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":55.85,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":55.85,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":453.3430900000001,"noi":607.80691,"totalExpenses":1782.730503865305,"cashFlow":-721.580503865305,"annualCf":-8658.966046383659,"cocReturn":-16.898577005791594,"capRate":2.846826325896551},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-805.3555038653049,"delta":-84,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-755.090503865305,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-751.4709705319717,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-932.013162194105,"delta":-210,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-04-01) (home values −4.4% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2009-04-01 → 2010-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-758.3662186655267,"delta":-37,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-932.013162194105,"baselineCashFlow":-721.580503865305,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.626767432792981,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":102707.64307183193,"totalCashOutlay":217673.05498719934,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":457239.6634468207,"equityBuilt":271158.752949757,"netCostOfBuying":-2244.8979625576467,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":104952.54103438958},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.076241388636978,"price":256204,"medianIncome":62853,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.517,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($1,073 tax ÷ $207,600 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":256204,"secondary":207600,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1117,"secondary":855,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.31,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":207600,"high":256204}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":855,"high":1117}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":207600,"high":256204}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.31,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":855,"high":1117}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Appomattox County, VA is a moderate market — a 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Appomattox County, VA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Appomattox County's 19.1x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Appomattox County?","a":"The typical home value in Appomattox County is about $256,204 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 4.7% year-over-year, and up 51.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Appomattox County?","a":"The typical rent in Appomattox County is about $1,117/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Appomattox County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Appomattox County — roughly $104,953 ahead of renting, with about $271,159 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Appomattox County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Appomattox County's median home value is 4.1x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Appomattox County?","a":"Appomattox County's effective property tax rate is about 0.52% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.52% ($1,073 tax ÷ $207,600 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $256,204 median home is roughly $110/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Appomattox County, VA was $256,204 as of April 2026, up 4.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Appomattox County, VA was $1,117/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Appomattox County, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.1 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=appomattox-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=appomattox-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T11:12:46.936Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Lynchburg, VA MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lynchburg, VA MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":256204,"countyFmr":1117,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lynchburg, VA MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}