{"area":{"county":"Apache County","state":"AZ","stateName":"Arizona","slug":"apache-az","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":52613},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":56306},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":59274},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":62314},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":65192},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":63700},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":62341},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":62555},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":63268},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":64781},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":65907},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":65690},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":66783},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":66875},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":67027},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":67187},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":66671},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":66661},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":67478},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":67350},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":67058}],"latest":67058,"yoy":0.5804622699524531,"fiveYr":27.455191682663983,"sinceStart":464.55632261323456,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1071}],"latest":1071,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":41438,"population":65341,"povertyRate":30.529180809961048,"medianHomeValue":63700,"medianGrossRent":647,"medianPropertyTax":572},"hud":{"county":"Apache County","year":"2027","perUnit":1071,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Arizona","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":53596,"ratePer100k":351.5036691589437},"propertyCrime":{"total":208645,"ratePer100k":1368.3760551471717},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":5.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is positive at standard assumptions)","priceCagr":4.9722221903229835,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":67058,"monthlyRent":1071,"grossRent":1071,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AZ","down":13411.6,"loan":53646.4,"mortgagePI":347.9495292773712,"monthlyTax":50.181736666666666,"taxRatePct":0.898,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.90% ($572 tax ÷ $63,700 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":26.8232,"insuranceRatePct":0.48,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":53.550000000000004,"egi":1017.45,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":107.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":53.550000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":53.550000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":291.2049366666667,"noi":726.2450633333333,"totalExpenses":639.1544659440378,"cashFlow":378.2955340559621,"annualCf":4539.546408671546,"cocReturn":33.84791082847345,"capRate":12.996123892749559},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":297.97053405596205,"delta":-80,"survives":true},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":346.165534055962,"delta":-32,"survives":true},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":371.58973405596214,"delta":-7,"survives":true},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":323.217575857758,"delta":-55,"survives":true},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −22.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-01-01 → 2009-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":195.74093635481256,"delta":-183,"survives":true}],"survived":5,"total":5,"score":100,"worstCashFlow":195.74093635481256,"baselineCashFlow":378.2955340559621,"framing":"scored","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.9722221903229835,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":98477.96394801434,"totalCashOutlay":54095.39713353972,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","homeValueAfter":94182.74274514905,"equityBuilt":45478.531662917296,"netCostOfBuying":22028.465470622425,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":76449.49847739191},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":1.6182730826777354,"price":67058,"medianIncome":41438,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.898,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.90% ($572 tax ÷ $63,700 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":67058,"secondary":63700,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1071,"secondary":647,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.66,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":63700,"high":67058}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.66,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":647,"high":1071}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 5.0%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":63700,"high":67058}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.66,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":647,"high":1071}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Apache County, AZ leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 5.2 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (378/mo at standard assumptions).","faqs":[{"q":"Is Apache County, AZ a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — Apache County's price-to-rent ratio of 5.2 is in the favorable range, and modeled investor cash flow is positive (about $378/mo at 20% down)."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Apache County?","a":"The typical home value in Apache County is about $67,058 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 0.6% year-over-year, and up 27.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Apache County?","a":"The typical rent in Apache County is about $1,071/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Apache County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Apache County — roughly $76,449 ahead of renting, with about $45,479 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Apache County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Apache County's median home value is 1.6x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Apache County?","a":"Apache County's effective property tax rate is about 0.90% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.90% ($572 tax ÷ $63,700 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $67,058 median home is roughly $50/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Apache County, AZ was $67,058 as of April 2026, up 0.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Apache County, AZ was $1,071/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Apache County, AZ has a price-to-rent ratio of 5.2 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=apache-az","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=apache-az"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T14:16:41.797Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":67058,"countyFmr":1071,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"AZ","stateName":"Arizona","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}