{"area":{"county":"Andrew County","state":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","slug":"andrew-mo","metro":"St. Joseph, MO-KS MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":182811},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":192660},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":198359},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":203906},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":214227},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":215400},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":218848},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":213764},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":231762},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":236344},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":235394},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":240869},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":254925},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":255013},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":258245},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":259012},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":269244},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":266379},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":265620},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":267680},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":276515}],"latest":276515,"yoy":2.700524431370801,"fiveYr":51.25730946168447,"sinceStart":397.0430687374173,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1101}],"latest":1101,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":75625,"population":18065,"povertyRate":6.194740102494791,"medianHomeValue":215400,"medianGrossRent":961,"medianPropertyTax":1568},"hud":{"county":"Andrew County","year":"2027","perUnit":1101,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Missouri","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":50057,"ratePer100k":399.1441886752674},"propertyCrime":{"total":193566,"ratePer100k":1543.455341413125},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":20.9,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":8.629603719576506,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":276515,"monthlyRent":1101,"grossRent":1101,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MO","down":55303,"loan":221212,"mortgagePI":1434.7768213804814,"monthlyTax":167.75243333333333,"taxRatePct":0.728,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,568 tax ÷ $215,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":138.25750000000002,"insuranceRatePct":0.6,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":55.050000000000004,"egi":1045.95,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":110.10000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":55.050000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":55.050000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":526.2099333333334,"noi":519.7400666666666,"totalExpenses":1960.9867547138147,"cashFlow":-915.0367547138147,"annualCf":-10980.441056565776,"cocReturn":-19.8550549817655,"capRate":2.25553073070177},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-997.6117547138148,"delta":-83,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-948.0667547138148,"delta":-33,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-949.6011297138147,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1142.151813486465,"delta":-227,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1986-07-01) (home values −8.3% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-07-01 → 2011-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-983.6656036249756,"delta":-69,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1142.151813486465,"baselineCashFlow":-915.0367547138147,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.629603719576506,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":101236.45033311275,"totalCashOutlay":239713.7213555497,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MO avg 0.6%/yr)","homeValueAfter":493578.3046447561,"equityBuilt":292745.5191843593,"netCostOfBuying":2271.202171190409,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":98965.24816192234},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.6563966942148762,"price":276515,"medianIncome":75625,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.728,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,568 tax ÷ $215,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":276515,"secondary":215400,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1101,"secondary":961,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.15,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":215400,"high":276515}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":961,"high":1101}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":215400,"high":276515}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.15,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":961,"high":1101}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Andrew County, MO is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 20.9x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Andrew County, MO a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 20.9x, Andrew County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Andrew County?","a":"The typical home value in Andrew County is about $276,515 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 2.7% year-over-year, and up 51.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Andrew County?","a":"The typical rent in Andrew County is about $1,101/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Andrew County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Andrew County — roughly $98,965 ahead of renting, with about $292,746 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Andrew County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Andrew County's median home value is 3.7x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Andrew County?","a":"Andrew County's effective property tax rate is about 0.73% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.73% ($1,568 tax ÷ $215,400 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $276,515 median home is roughly $168/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Andrew County, MO was $276,515 as of April 2026, up 2.7% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Andrew County, MO was $1,101/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Andrew County, MO has a price-to-rent ratio of 20.9 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=andrew-mo","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=andrew-mo"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:48:10.362Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, St. Joseph, MO-KS MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"St. Joseph, MO-KS MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":276515,"countyFmr":1101,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"St. Joseph, MO-KS MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"MO","stateName":"Missouri","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}