{"area":{"county":"Alpine County","state":"CA","stateName":"California","slug":"alpine-ca","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":526795},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":552557},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":573978},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":596555},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":604911},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":590200},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":581563},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":578689},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":592541},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":603340},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":609740},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":613592},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":617014},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":622228},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":624643},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":624525},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":619236},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":618851},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":621310},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":621843},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":617977}],"latest":617977,"yoy":-0.20331505274241163,"fiveYr":17.30882031909946,"sinceStart":317.1489709267397,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1526}],"latest":1526,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":105521,"population":1616,"povertyRate":9.962871287128714,"medianHomeValue":590200,"medianGrossRent":null,"medianPropertyTax":4530},"hud":{"county":"Alpine County","year":"2027","perUnit":1526,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"California","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":297608,"ratePer100k":377.37568791544925},"propertyCrime":{"total":1224544,"ratePer100k":1552.757769894411},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":33.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":3.2447630573987585,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":617977,"monthlyRent":1526,"grossRent":1526,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"CA","down":123595.40000000001,"loan":494381.6,"mortgagePI":3206.5496473834896,"monthlyTax":395.50528,"taxRatePct":0.768,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.77% ($4,530 tax ÷ $590,200 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":334.7375416666667,"insuranceRatePct":0.65,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":76.3,"egi":1449.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":152.6,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":76.3,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":76.3,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1035.4428216666668,"noi":414.2571783333333,"totalExpenses":4241.992469050157,"cashFlow":-2792.2924690501563,"annualCf":-33507.509628601874,"cocReturn":-27.110644594055987,"capRate":0.8044128082436723},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2906.742469050156,"delta":-114,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2838.0724690501565,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2875.976854466823,"delta":-84,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3299.866679039293,"delta":-508,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −28.3% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-07-01 → 2008-07-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3115.6211912808776,"delta":-323,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3299.866679039293,"baselineCashFlow":-2792.2924690501563,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"verified","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.2447630573987585,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":140315.00745534067,"totalCashOutlay":507436.47588069836,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (CA avg 0.65%/yr)","homeValueAfter":772766.9419067114,"equityBuilt":323930.3787529593,"netCostOfBuying":307101.4971277391,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":166786.4896723984},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.856436159626994,"price":617977,"medianIncome":105521,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.768,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.77% ($4,530 tax ÷ $590,200 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"verified","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":617977,"secondary":590200,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":590200,"high":617977}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":590200,"high":617977}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Alpine County, CA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 33.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Alpine County, CA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 33.7x, Alpine County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Alpine County?","a":"The typical home value in Alpine County is about $617,977 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.2% year-over-year, and up 17.3% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Alpine County?","a":"The typical rent in Alpine County is about $1,526/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Alpine County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Alpine County by about $166,786 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Alpine County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Alpine County's median home value is 5.9x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Alpine County?","a":"Alpine County's effective property tax rate is about 0.77% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.77% ($4,530 tax ÷ $590,200 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $617,977 median home is roughly $396/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Alpine County, CA was $617,977 as of April 2026, down 0.2% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Alpine County, CA was $1,526/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Alpine County, CA has a price-to-rent ratio of 33.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=alpine-ca","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=alpine-ca"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-13T18:55:41.148Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":617977,"countyFmr":1526,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"CA","stateName":"California","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}