{"area":{"county":"Allen County","state":"OH","stateName":"Ohio","slug":"allen-oh","metro":"Lima, OH MSA"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":142516},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":149097},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":152997},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":155173},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":165675},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":165300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":164236},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":170135},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":171697},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":177984},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":179560},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":177603},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":185650},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":189544},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":186032},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":197079},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":190546},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":203537},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":203299},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":203701},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":211673}],"latest":211673,"yoy":11.087611390425408,"fiveYr":48.52577956159308,"sinceStart":382.7206385404789,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1179}],"latest":1179,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":64038,"population":101348,"povertyRate":13.289141414141415,"medianHomeValue":165300,"medianGrossRent":922,"medianPropertyTax":1847},"hud":{"county":"Allen County","year":"2027","perUnit":1179,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Ohio","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":57142,"ratePer100k":240.08214773988678},"propertyCrime":{"total":292391,"ratePer100k":1228.4809642611956},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":15,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 15.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":8.234339803572798,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":211673,"monthlyRent":1179,"grossRent":1179,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"OH","down":42334.600000000006,"loan":169338.4,"mortgagePI":1098.3256391590712,"monthlyTax":197.03228416666664,"taxRatePct":1.117,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($1,847 tax ÷ $165,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":84.66919999999999,"insuranceRatePct":0.48,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OH avg 0.48%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":58.95,"egi":1120.05,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":117.9,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":58.95,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":58.95,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":517.5014841666666,"noi":602.5485158333333,"totalExpenses":1615.8271233257378,"cashFlow":-495.7771233257379,"annualCf":-5949.3254799088545,"cocReturn":-14.053104269105777,"capRate":3.4159208732337145},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-584.2021233257378,"delta":-88,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-531.1471233257378,"delta":-35,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-516.9444233257378,"delta":-21,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-669.6343312008378,"delta":-174,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1982-04-01) (home values −7.5% over 6 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 1983-04-01 → 1983-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-561.7010166728775,"delta":-66,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-669.6343312008378,"baselineCashFlow":-495.7771233257379,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":8.234339803572798,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":108408.51493436872,"totalCashOutlay":188619.7847419977,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (OH avg 0.48%/yr)","homeValueAfter":368316.3278372599,"equityBuilt":214578.27313223985,"netCostOfBuying":16376.111609757849,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":92032.40332461087},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.305428027108904,"price":211673,"medianIncome":64038,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.117,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($1,847 tax ÷ $165,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":211673,"secondary":165300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1179,"secondary":922,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.28,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":165300,"high":211673}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":922,"high":1179}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 8.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":165300,"high":211673}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.28,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":922,"high":1179}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Allen County, OH is a moderate market — a 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Allen County, OH a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Allen County's 15.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Allen County?","a":"The typical home value in Allen County is about $211,673 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), up 11.1% year-over-year, and up 48.5% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Allen County?","a":"The typical rent in Allen County is about $1,179/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Allen County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Allen County — roughly $92,032 ahead of renting, with about $214,578 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Allen County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Allen County's median home value is 3.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Allen County?","a":"Allen County's effective property tax rate is about 1.12% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.12% ($1,847 tax ÷ $165,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $211,673 median home is roughly $197/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Allen County, OH was $211,673 as of April 2026, up 11.1% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Allen County, OH was $1,179/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Allen County, OH has a price-to-rent ratio of 15.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=allen-oh","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=allen-oh"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:12:46.914Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Lima, OH MSA) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lima, OH MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":211673,"countyFmr":1179,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Lima, OH MSA"},"links":{"stateDir":"OH","stateName":"Ohio","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}