{"area":{"county":"Allegan County","state":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","slug":"allegan-mi","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":235779},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":244526},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":252498},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":262369},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":267408},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":267100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":268516},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":272881},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":279278},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":286859},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":292048},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":295072},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":301386},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":306217},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":306551},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":315380},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":315289},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":318404},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":324160},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":325993},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":327267}],"latest":327267,"yoy":3.799054201066323,"fiveYr":38.802437876146726,"sinceStart":292.87755102040813,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1296}],"latest":1296,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":83283,"population":121456,"povertyRate":8.373926393095722,"medianHomeValue":267100,"medianGrossRent":1100,"medianPropertyTax":2884},"hud":{"county":"Allegan County","year":"2027","perUnit":1296,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Michigan","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":78425,"ratePer100k":386.69354118980215},"propertyCrime":{"total":232349,"ratePer100k":1145.6532687524302},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":21,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":6.778377621051956,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":327267,"monthlyRent":1296,"grossRent":1296,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"MI","down":65453.4,"loan":261813.6,"mortgagePI":1698.118026156722,"monthlyTax":294.5403,"taxRatePct":1.08,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.08% ($2,884 tax ÷ $267,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":125.45235000000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.46,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":64.8,"egi":1231.2,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":129.6,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":64.8,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":64.8,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":679.19265,"noi":552.0073500000001,"totalExpenses":2377.310676156722,"cashFlow":-1146.1106761567219,"annualCf":-13753.328113880663,"cocReturn":-21.012396779816882,"capRate":2.0240623710914942},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1243.310676156722,"delta":-97,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1184.990676156722,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1177.473763656722,"delta":-31,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1414.9107916634716,"delta":-269,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −12.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-10-01 → 2008-10-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1269.606374240414,"delta":-123,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1414.9107916634716,"baselineCashFlow":-1146.1106761567219,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":6.778377621051956,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":119166.61183625262,"totalCashOutlay":287986.3491416407,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (MI avg 0.46%/yr)","homeValueAfter":517947.1420388433,"equityBuilt":280253.1898146684,"netCostOfBuying":73186.55932697232,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":45980.0525092803},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":3.9295774647887325,"price":327267,"medianIncome":83283,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.08,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.08% ($2,884 tax ÷ $267,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":327267,"secondary":267100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.23,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1296,"secondary":1100,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.18,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":267100,"high":327267}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1100,"high":1296}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 6.8%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.23,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":267100,"high":327267}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.18,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1100,"high":1296}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Allegan County, MI is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 21.0x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Allegan County, MI a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 21.0x, Allegan County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Allegan County?","a":"The typical home value in Allegan County is about $327,267 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.8% year-over-year, and up 38.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Allegan County?","a":"The typical rent in Allegan County is about $1,296/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Allegan County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in Allegan County — roughly $45,980 ahead of renting, with about $280,253 in equity built."},{"q":"Is Allegan County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Allegan County's median home value is 3.9x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Allegan County?","a":"Allegan County's effective property tax rate is about 1.08% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 1.08% ($2,884 tax ÷ $267,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $327,267 median home is roughly $295/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Allegan County, MI was $327,267 as of April 2026, up 3.8% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Allegan County, MI was $1,296/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Allegan County, MI has a price-to-rent ratio of 21.0 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=allegan-mi","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=allegan-mi"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T08:43:39.306Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":327267,"countyFmr":1296,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"MI","stateName":"Michigan","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}