{"area":{"county":"Alexandria city","state":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","slug":"alexandria-va","metro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":713686},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":722697},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":734451},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":755068},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":749951},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":735100},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":730762},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":746743},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":753844},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":760797},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":782841},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":739160},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":775777},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":776148},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":775870},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":791963},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":772273},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":793780},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":788347},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":752565},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":764412}],"latest":764412,"yoy":-1.0179042903222046,"fiveYr":7.10760754729671,"sinceStart":312.29975944164573,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":2438}],"latest":2438,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":119681,"population":156976,"povertyRate":7.93929681617207,"medianHomeValue":735100,"medianGrossRent":2089,"medianPropertyTax":7024},"hud":{"county":"Alexandria city","year":"2027","perUnit":2438,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Virginia","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":35217,"ratePer100k":198.2915295953078},"propertyCrime":{"total":230747,"ratePer100k":1299.2354709239428},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":26.1,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":1.382939792988025,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":764412,"monthlyRent":2438,"grossRent":2438,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":152882.4,"loan":611529.6,"mortgagePI":3966.369345551223,"monthlyTax":608.98156,"taxRatePct":0.956,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.96% ($7,024 tax ÷ $735,100 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":356.72560000000004,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":121.9,"egi":2316.1,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":243.8,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":121.9,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":121.9,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1453.30716,"noi":862.7928399999998,"totalExpenses":5419.676505551223,"cashFlow":-3103.576505551223,"annualCf":-37242.91806661467,"cocReturn":-24.36050066365695,"capRate":1.3544415943234795},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3286.426505551223,"delta":-183,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3176.7165055512232,"delta":-73,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3192.7579055512233,"delta":-89,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3731.4248186862033,"delta":-628,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −15.7% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2007-04-01 → 2008-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3390.0439307379615,"delta":-286,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3731.4248186862033,"baselineCashFlow":-3103.576505551223,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":1.382939792988025,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":224172.99356233323,"totalCashOutlay":617142.0866646976,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":841553.3595021723,"equityBuilt":286361.0871142261,"netCostOfBuying":483663.3995504716,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":259490.40598813834},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.387078984968374,"price":764412,"medianIncome":119681,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.956,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.96% ($7,024 tax ÷ $735,100 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":764412,"secondary":735100,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.04,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":2438,"secondary":2089,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.17,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":735100,"high":764412}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2089,"high":2438}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 1.4%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.04,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":735100,"high":764412}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.17,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":2089,"high":2438}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Alexandria city, VA is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 26.1x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Alexandria city, VA a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 26.1x, Alexandria city is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Alexandria city?","a":"The typical home value in Alexandria city is about $764,412 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA metro HPI), down 1.0% year-over-year, and up 7.1% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Alexandria city?","a":"The typical rent in Alexandria city is about $2,438/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Alexandria city?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Alexandria city by about $259,490 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Alexandria city affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Alexandria city's median home value is 6.4x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Alexandria city?","a":"Alexandria city's effective property tax rate is about 0.96% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.96% ($7,024 tax ÷ $735,100 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $764,412 median home is roughly $609/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Alexandria city, VA was $764,412 as of April 2026, down 1.0% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Alexandria city, VA was $2,438/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Alexandria city, VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 26.1 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=alexandria-va","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=alexandria-va"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T08:07:29.752Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA metro HPI (quarterly, Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":764412,"countyFmr":2438,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD HUD Metro FMR Area"},"links":{"stateDir":"VA","stateName":"Virginia","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}