{"area":{"county":"Adams County","state":"WA","stateName":"Washington","slug":"adams-wa","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":239295},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":249853},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":260485},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":273054},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":277741},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":273300},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":268834},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":266976},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":268815},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":274808},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":278027},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":278944},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":281931},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":283996},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":286155},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":289438},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":289783},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":288107},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":292158},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":288664},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":287047}],"latest":287047,"yoy":-0.9441547640820891,"fiveYr":19.955285317286194,"sinceStart":482.36356258876043,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1262}],"latest":1262,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":66136,"population":20800,"povertyRate":19.54920019389239,"medianHomeValue":273300,"medianGrossRent":877,"medianPropertyTax":2147},"hud":{"county":"Adams County","year":"2027","perUnit":1262,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Washington","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":42104,"ratePer100k":263.11645265228685},"propertyCrime":{"total":287985,"ratePer100k":1799.676791209121},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":19,"ratioVerdict":"Borderline — at 19.0× the market leans renting (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","priceCagr":3.7065152528217293,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":287047,"monthlyRent":1262,"grossRent":1262,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"WA","down":57409.4,"loan":229637.6,"mortgagePI":1489.4251026049328,"monthlyTax":188.01578500000002,"taxRatePct":0.786,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.79% ($2,147 tax ÷ $273,300 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":100.46645,"insuranceRatePct":0.42,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":63.1,"egi":1198.9,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":126.2,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":63.1,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":63.1,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":540.882235,"noi":658.017765,"totalExpenses":2030.3073376049329,"cashFlow":-831.4073376049328,"annualCf":-9976.888051259193,"cocReturn":-17.37849211324137,"capRate":2.7508433044065956},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-926.0573376049329,"delta":-95,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-869.2673376049329,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-856.5239501049327,"delta":-25,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1067.172834144046,"delta":-236,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −10.2% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2008-04-01 → 2009-04-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-927.9352360806898,"delta":-97,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1067.172834144046,"baselineCashFlow":-831.4073376049328,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":3.7065152528217293,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":116040.3272664744,"totalCashOutlay":233305.1776220489,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (WA avg 0.42%/yr)","homeValueAfter":370335.4629915226,"equityBuilt":161853.2881798467,"netCostOfBuying":128861.2894422022,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":12820.962175727793},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":4.34025341720092,"price":287047,"medianIncome":66136,"label":"Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.786,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.79% ($2,147 tax ÷ $273,300 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":287047,"secondary":273300,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1262,"secondary":877,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.44,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":273300,"high":287047}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.44,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":877,"high":1262}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (228d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 3.7%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":228,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":273300,"high":287047}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.44,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":877,"high":1262}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Adams County, WA is a moderate market — a 19.0x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Adams County, WA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Adams County's 19.0x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Adams County?","a":"The typical home value in Adams County is about $287,047 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), down 0.9% year-over-year, and up 20.0% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Adams County?","a":"The typical rent in Adams County is about $1,262/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Adams County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Adams County by about $12,821 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Adams County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Adams County's median home value is 4.3x the local median household income — Moderate (3–5x — tighter budgets)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Adams County?","a":"Adams County's effective property tax rate is about 0.79% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.79% ($2,147 tax ÷ $273,300 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $287,047 median home is roughly $188/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Adams County, WA was $287,047 as of April 2026, down 0.9% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Adams County, WA was $1,262/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Adams County, WA has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.0 — a moderate reading where individual deals decide the outcome. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=adams-wa","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=adams-wa"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-15T00:45:58.792Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":287047,"countyFmr":1262,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"WA","stateName":"Washington","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}