{"area":{"county":"Adams County","state":"ID","stateName":"Idaho","slug":"adams-id","metro":null},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-04-01","value":328299},{"date":"2021-07-01","value":348973},{"date":"2021-10-01","value":361550},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":376619},{"date":"2022-04-01","value":387630},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":376500},{"date":"2022-10-01","value":370464},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":368953},{"date":"2023-04-01","value":373597},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":376862},{"date":"2023-10-01","value":378410},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":383816},{"date":"2024-04-01","value":378410},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":391337},{"date":"2024-10-01","value":399552},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":394521},{"date":"2025-04-01","value":394895},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":397611},{"date":"2025-10-01","value":395975},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":406206},{"date":"2026-04-01","value":409171}],"latest":409171,"yoy":3.615138201294015,"fiveYr":24.633641893517797,"sinceStart":555.5126561999359,"modeled":true},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1014}],"latest":1014,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":61808,"population":4744,"povertyRate":17.92312592907199,"medianHomeValue":376500,"medianGrossRent":830,"medianPropertyTax":1359},"hud":{"county":"Adams County","year":"2027","perUnit":1014,"bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"crime":{"scope":"state","state":"Idaho","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":7778,"ratePer100k":191.60155547552313},"propertyCrime":{"total":21490,"ratePer100k":529.3799726367951},"note":"State-level totals from the FBI CDE summarized offense endpoint."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceToRentRatio":33.6,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","priceCagr":4.50322084404069,"rentCagr":3,"cashFlow":{"price":409171,"monthlyRent":1014,"grossRent":1014,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"ID","down":81834.20000000001,"loan":327336.8,"mortgagePI":2123.1002541673065,"monthlyTax":123.09227583333332,"taxRatePct":0.361,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.36% ($1,359 tax ÷ $376,500 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":170.48791666666668,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ID avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":50.7,"egi":963.3,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":101.4,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":50.7,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":50.7,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":496.3801925,"noi":466.91980749999993,"totalExpenses":2619.4804466673068,"cashFlow":-1656.1804466673066,"annualCf":-19874.16536000768,"cocReturn":-24.28589191317038,"capRate":1.369363344420792},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1732.2304466673065,"delta":-76,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1686.6004466673066,"delta":-30,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1698.8024258339733,"delta":-43,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1992.2522536689671,"delta":-336,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 1991-01-01) (home values −13.9% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2010-01-01 → 2011-01-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-1761.5652865861907,"delta":-105,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1992.2522536689671,"baselineCashFlow":-1656.1804466673066,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.50322084404069,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":93236.83981632728,"totalCashOutlay":328430.35269099975,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (ID avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":556945.3423556673,"equityBuilt":259764.53241907764,"netCostOfBuying":150500.0202719221,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":57263.18045559483},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":6.6200330054361896,"price":409171,"medianIncome":61808,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.361,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.36% ($1,359 tax ÷ $376,500 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (vintage update)","primary":409171,"secondary":376500,"primarySource":"current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","secondarySource":"raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)","ratio":1.09,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1014,"secondary":830,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.22,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":376500,"high":409171}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":830,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. The rent and property-price checks pair genuinely independent datasets (HUD FMR vs Census ACS gross rent; your price vs the county estimate). The home-value check compares our current estimate (ACS county median updated by the FHFA state index) against the raw ACS 2023 median — its spread reflects price movement since the ACS measurement period (~2021), not disagreement between unrelated sources. 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-04-01 (227d old — current for quarterly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (13d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.5%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-04-01","ageDays":227,"cadence":"quarterly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":13,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.09,"sources":["current estimate (ACS county median × FHFA state HPI growth)","raw ACS 2023 county median (as measured ~2021)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":376500,"high":409171}},"rent":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.22,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":830,"high":1014}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Adams County, ID is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 33.6x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Adams County, ID a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 33.6x, Adams County is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Adams County?","a":"The typical home value in Adams County is about $409,171 (county-level, Census ACS & FHFA state HPI), up 3.6% year-over-year, and up 24.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Adams County?","a":"The typical rent in Adams County is about $1,014/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Adams County?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Adams County by about $57,263 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Adams County affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Adams County's median home value is 6.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."},{"q":"What is the property tax rate in Adams County?","a":"Adams County's effective property tax rate is about 0.36% of home value (Census ACS county effective rate 0.36% ($1,359 tax ÷ $376,500 ACS median), applied to current value), which on a $409,171 median home is roughly $123/mo."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Adams County, ID was $409,171 as of April 2026, up 3.6% year over year (FHFA HPI applied to the Census ACS county median).","The typical market rent in Adams County, ID was $1,014/mo as of November 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","Adams County, ID has a price-to-rent ratio of 33.6 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCountyReport","query":"slug=adams-id","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCountyReport?slug=adams-id"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T10:05:00.375Z","homeValueBasis":"FHFA state HPI (quarterly) × ACS county anchor","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":null,"zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"county-fhfa-acs","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":null,"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":409171,"countyFmr":1014,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"links":{"stateDir":"ID","stateName":"Idaho","cityPages":[],"zips":[]},"sources":["Census ACS 5-year","FHFA HPI","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE (state-level context)"]}