{"area":{"city":"Tucson","state":"AZ","county":"","zip":"85701"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-09-01","value":383372},{"date":"2021-11-01","value":393669},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":399327},{"date":"2022-03-01","value":398836},{"date":"2022-05-01","value":406875},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":416866},{"date":"2022-09-01","value":416706},{"date":"2022-11-01","value":414256},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":409035},{"date":"2023-03-01","value":405219},{"date":"2023-05-01","value":404611},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":402427},{"date":"2023-09-01","value":401989},{"date":"2023-11-01","value":401896},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":401858},{"date":"2024-03-01","value":405283},{"date":"2024-05-01","value":411189},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":412590},{"date":"2024-09-01","value":410478},{"date":"2024-11-01","value":403485},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":396105},{"date":"2025-03-01","value":396621},{"date":"2025-05-01","value":401334},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":401211},{"date":"2025-09-01","value":395723},{"date":"2025-11-01","value":392899},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":391993},{"date":"2026-03-01","value":394486},{"date":"2026-05-01","value":396579},{"date":"2026-07-01","value":392943},{"date":"2026-09-01","value":386346}],"latest":386346,"yoy":-2.3695868069331323,"fiveYr":0.7757478376094238,"sinceStart":252.66314319358108},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2022-01-01","value":1167},{"date":"2022-03-01","value":1202},{"date":"2022-05-01","value":1181},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":1158},{"date":"2022-09-01","value":1187},{"date":"2022-11-01","value":1252},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":1221},{"date":"2023-03-01","value":1239},{"date":"2023-05-01","value":1248},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":1247},{"date":"2023-09-01","value":1247},{"date":"2023-11-01","value":1259},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":1237},{"date":"2024-03-01","value":1241},{"date":"2024-05-01","value":1252},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":1223},{"date":"2024-09-01","value":1231},{"date":"2024-11-01","value":1244},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":1254},{"date":"2025-03-01","value":1242},{"date":"2025-05-01","value":1237},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":1231},{"date":"2025-09-01","value":1205},{"date":"2025-11-01","value":1191},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":1216},{"date":"2026-03-01","value":1239},{"date":"2026-05-01","value":1226},{"date":"2026-07-01","value":1215},{"date":"2026-09-01","value":1253}],"latest":1253,"yoy":3.9834024896265556,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":7.369323050556983},"census":{"skipped":"No county provided — income data is county-level."},"crime":{"scope":"city","agency":"Tucson Police Department","state":"AZ","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":4679,"ratePer100k":420.0948827253824},"propertyCrime":{"total":22938,"ratePer100k":2059.4435605802137},"note":"City-specific totals for Tucson Police Department via the FBI CDE two-step ORI lookup."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceCagr":0.15469156094711778,"rentCagr":1.5357849461392181,"priceToRentRatio":25.7,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","cashFlow":{"price":386346,"monthlyRent":1253,"grossRent":1253,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"AZ","down":77269.2,"loan":309076.8,"mortgagePI":2004.6662417339508,"monthlyTax":199.61209999999997,"taxRatePct":0.62,"taxRateSource":"state average (AZ)","monthlyInsurance":154.5384,"insuranceRatePct":0.48,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":62.650000000000006,"egi":1190.35,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":125.30000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":62.650000000000006,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":62.650000000000006,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":604.7505,"noi":585.5994999999999,"totalExpenses":2609.416741733951,"cashFlow":-1419.066741733951,"annualCf":-17028.80090080741,"cocReturn":-22.03827773654627,"capRate":1.8188861797456164},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1513.0417417339506,"delta":-94,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1456.6567417339506,"delta":-38,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1457.7013417339508,"delta":-39,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1736.3912792692686,"delta":-317,"survives":false},{"id":"historyRent","label":"Worst rent drop in available history (since 2022-01-01) (−5.3% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in this market's rent series, 2025-02-01 → 2025-11-01","cashFlow":-1468.4092238341893,"delta":-49,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1736.3912792692686,"baselineCashFlow":-1419.066741733951,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"unavailable","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":0.15469156094711778,"rentCagr":1.5357849461392181,"totalRentPaid":110227.38261872943,"totalCashOutlay":302718.2681637781,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (AZ avg 0.48%/yr)","homeValueAfter":390548.97736139776,"equityBuilt":109945.96005136939,"netCostOfBuying":270041.50811240874,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":159814.1254936793},"priceToIncome":null,"countyTaxRatePct":null,"countyTaxSource":null,"dataCheck":{"status":"unavailable","checks":[],"confidence":{"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. Home value: the current ZIP market-index figure is paired against the county ACS × FHFA HPI estimate (current) — the spread measures ZIP-vs-county geography and methodology, not data age. Rent: the current ZIP market-rent-index figure is paired against HUD Small Area FMR when one exists for the ZIP, otherwise against the Census ACS county gross rent INFLATED to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the rent chart uses (a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one). 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-09-01 (75d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-09-01 (75d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"rent growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 4.7yr available window"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 0.2%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"15/15 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-09-01","ageDays":75,"cadence":"monthly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-09-01","ageDays":75,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Tucson, AZ is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 25.7x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Tucson, AZ a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 25.7x, Tucson is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Tucson?","a":"The typical home value in Tucson is about $386,346 (ZIP-level market index, cross-checked against the Census ACS county median updated by FHFA HPI), down 2.4% year-over-year, and up 0.8% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Tucson?","a":"The typical rent in Tucson is about $1,253/mo (ZIP-level market-rent index, cross-checked against HUD Small Area FMR), up 4.0% year-over-year."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Tucson?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Tucson by about $159,814 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Tucson (ZIP 85701), AZ was $386,346 as of September 2026, down 2.4% year over year (ZIP market index, cross-checked against FHFA HPI).","The typical market rent in Tucson (ZIP 85701), AZ was $1,253/mo as of September 2026, up 4.0% year over year (ZIP market-rent index).","Tucson (ZIP 85701), AZ has a price-to-rent ratio of 25.7 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCityReport","query":"city=Tucson&state=AZ&zip=85701","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCityReport?city=Tucson&state=AZ&zip=85701"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T14:53:27.378Z","homeValueBasis":"ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly) — cross-checked against ACS county × FHFA state HPI","rentBasis":"ZIP market-rent index (ZIP, monthly) — cross-checked against Census ACS county gross rent","zhviThrough":"2026-09-01","zoriThrough":"2026-09-01","fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null,"acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":null,"safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"zillow-zhvi","rentTier":"zillow-zori","zhvi":{"latest":386346,"through":"2026-09-01","city":"Tucson","county":"Pima County","metro":"Tucson, AZ"},"zori":{"latest":1253,"through":"2026-09-01"},"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":null,"countyFmr":null,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"state","hpiMetro":null},"sources":["FHFA HPI","Census ACS 5-year","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE"]}