{"area":{"city":"Richmond","state":"VA","county":"Richmond city","zip":"23219"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-09-01","value":341086},{"date":"2021-11-01","value":345342},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":350526},{"date":"2022-03-01","value":352225},{"date":"2022-05-01","value":357105},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":363850},{"date":"2022-09-01","value":363266},{"date":"2022-11-01","value":360044},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":353848},{"date":"2023-03-01","value":346290},{"date":"2023-05-01","value":347499},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":349916},{"date":"2023-09-01","value":352314},{"date":"2023-11-01","value":354916},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":359082},{"date":"2024-03-01","value":363939},{"date":"2024-05-01","value":367685},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":366819},{"date":"2024-09-01","value":366966},{"date":"2024-11-01","value":369098},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":371478},{"date":"2025-03-01","value":374054},{"date":"2025-05-01","value":372332},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":366762},{"date":"2025-09-01","value":358962},{"date":"2025-11-01","value":356334},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":354607},{"date":"2026-03-01","value":355192},{"date":"2026-05-01","value":358056},{"date":"2026-07-01","value":359676},{"date":"2026-09-01","value":360326}],"latest":360326,"yoy":0.37998451089530366,"fiveYr":5.640806131005084,"sinceStart":341.7383842098811},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2021-09-01","value":1267},{"date":"2021-11-01","value":1280},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":1311},{"date":"2022-03-01","value":1318},{"date":"2022-05-01","value":1345},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":1374},{"date":"2022-09-01","value":1365},{"date":"2022-11-01","value":1375},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":1379},{"date":"2023-03-01","value":1384},{"date":"2023-05-01","value":1385},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":1399},{"date":"2023-09-01","value":1359},{"date":"2023-11-01","value":1387},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":1395},{"date":"2024-03-01","value":1407},{"date":"2024-05-01","value":1435},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":1473},{"date":"2024-09-01","value":1468},{"date":"2024-11-01","value":1426},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":1436},{"date":"2025-03-01","value":1461},{"date":"2025-05-01","value":1487},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":1513},{"date":"2025-09-01","value":1487},{"date":"2025-11-01","value":1465},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":1462},{"date":"2026-03-01","value":1489},{"date":"2026-05-01","value":1528},{"date":"2026-07-01","value":1532},{"date":"2026-09-01","value":1530}],"latest":1530,"yoy":2.89172831203766,"fiveYr":20.757695343330703,"sinceStart":29.55122777307367},"census":{"medianIncome":64587,"population":229359,"povertyRate":18.196803424252085,"medianHomeValue":353000,"medianGrossRent":1372,"medianPropertyTax":3150},"crime":{"scope":"city","agency":"Richmond Police Department","state":"VA","period":"10-2024 to 09-2026","window":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":1662,"ratePer100k":352.12610436661794},"propertyCrime":{"total":13214,"ratePer100k":2799.6355854996928},"note":"City-specific totals for Richmond Police Department via the FBI CDE two-step ORI lookup."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"10-2024","to":"09-2026","fellBack":false},"priceCagr":1.1036870849198355,"rentCagr":3.844908069195352,"priceToRentRatio":19.6,"ratioVerdict":"Mixed — at 19.6× (ZIP market indexes) price-to-rent is borderline, leaning renting; at 21.4× (county median home value × HUD 2-BR fair market rent) it favors renting. Which applies depends on the rent you actually face.","cashFlow":{"price":360326,"monthlyRent":1530,"grossRent":1530,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"VA","down":72065.2,"loan":288260.8,"mortgagePI":1869.654061952311,"monthlyTax":267.8423266666667,"taxRatePct":0.892,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.89% ($3,150 tax ÷ $353,000 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":168.15213333333335,"insuranceRatePct":0.56,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":76.5,"egi":1453.5,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":153,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":76.5,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":76.5,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":741.99446,"noi":711.50554,"totalExpenses":2611.648521952311,"cashFlow":-1158.148521952311,"annualCf":-13897.782263427733,"cocReturn":-19.285011716373134,"capRate":2.369539383780243},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1272.898521952311,"delta":-115,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1204.0485219523111,"delta":-46,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-1200.1865552856443,"delta":-42,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-1454.1015829700277,"delta":-296,"survives":false},{"id":"historyRent","label":"Worst rent drop in available history (since 2019-01-01) (−3.4% over 5 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in this market's rent series, 2025-07-01 → 2025-12-01","cashFlow":-1196.82829723321,"delta":-39,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-1454.1015829700277,"baselineCashFlow":-1158.148521952311,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":1.1036870849198355,"rentCagr":3.844908069195352,"totalRentPaid":144331.7827613533,"totalCashOutlay":290388.856744908,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (VA avg 0.56%/yr)","homeValueAfter":389102.98076615884,"equityBuilt":127398.28390051692,"netCostOfBuying":235055.77284439106,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":90723.99008303776},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":5.578924551380308,"price":360326,"medianIncome":64587,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":0.892,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 0.89% ($3,150 tax ÷ $353,000 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (ZIP vs county)","primary":360326,"secondary":424597,"primarySource":"ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","secondarySource":"Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)","ratio":0.85,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":false},{"metric":"market rent (ZIP vs county ACS)","primary":1530,"secondary":1766,"primarySource":"ZIP market-rent index (ZIP, monthly)","secondarySource":"Census ACS county gross rent, inflated to current via the ACS rent trend","ratio":0.87,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":0.85,"sources":["ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":360326,"high":424597}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.87,"sources":["ZIP market-rent index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county gross rent, inflated to current via the ACS rent trend"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1530,"high":1766}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. Home value: the current ZIP market-index figure is paired against the county ACS × FHFA HPI estimate (current) — the spread measures ZIP-vs-county geography and methodology, not data age. Rent: the current ZIP market-rent-index figure is paired against HUD Small Area FMR when one exists for the ZIP, otherwise against the Census ACS county gross rent INFLATED to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the rent chart uses (a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one). 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-09-01 (75d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-09-01 (75d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"rent growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 1.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"17/17 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-09-01","ageDays":75,"cadence":"monthly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-09-01","ageDays":75,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":0.85,"sources":["ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":360326,"high":424597}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":0.87,"sources":["ZIP market-rent index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county gross rent, inflated to current via the ACS rent trend"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1530,"high":1766}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Richmond, VA is a moderate market — a 19.6x price-to-rent ratio is borderline, leaning renting; individual deals decide the outcome.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Richmond, VA a good rental market?","a":"Mixed. Richmond's 19.6x price-to-rent ratio is moderate; rentals can cash flow, but only on well-priced properties."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Richmond?","a":"The typical home value in Richmond is about $360,326 (ZIP-level market index, cross-checked against the Census ACS county median updated by FHFA HPI), up 0.4% year-over-year, and up 5.6% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Richmond?","a":"The typical rent in Richmond is about $1,530/mo (ZIP-level market-rent index, cross-checked against HUD Small Area FMR), up 2.9% year-over-year."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Richmond?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Richmond by about $90,724 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Richmond affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Richmond's median home value is 5.6x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Richmond (ZIP 23219), VA was $360,326 as of September 2026, up 0.4% year over year (ZIP market index, cross-checked against FHFA HPI).","The typical market rent in Richmond (ZIP 23219), VA was $1,530/mo as of September 2026, up 2.9% year over year (ZIP market-rent index).","Richmond (ZIP 23219), VA has a price-to-rent ratio of 19.6 — a reading that favors buying at the ZIP-index basis, while the like-for-like county basis (21.4x, county ACS value × county HUD FMR) favors renting — mixed, depending on the rent you actually face. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCityReport","query":"city=Richmond&state=VA&zip=23219","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCityReport?city=Richmond&state=VA&zip=23219"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T12:08:16.811Z","homeValueBasis":"ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly) — cross-checked against ACS county × FHFA metro HPI","rentBasis":"ZIP market-rent index (ZIP, monthly) — cross-checked against Census ACS county gross rent","zhviThrough":"2026-09-01","zoriThrough":"2026-09-01","fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"zillow-zhvi","rentTier":"zillow-zori","zhvi":{"latest":360326,"through":"2026-09-01","city":"Richmond","county":"Richmond City","metro":"Richmond, VA"},"zori":{"latest":1530,"through":"2026-09-01"},"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":424597,"countyFmr":1651,"countyRatio":21.4,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Richmond, VA HUD Metro FMR Area"},"sources":["FHFA HPI","Census ACS 5-year","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE"]}