{"area":{"city":"El Paso","state":"TX","county":"El Paso County","zip":"79901"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-09-01","value":106591},{"date":"2021-11-01","value":106656},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":109221},{"date":"2022-03-01","value":110519},{"date":"2022-05-01","value":111911},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":114245},{"date":"2022-09-01","value":115282},{"date":"2022-11-01","value":115618},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":117689},{"date":"2023-03-01","value":120688},{"date":"2023-05-01","value":125152},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":128597},{"date":"2023-09-01","value":130104},{"date":"2023-11-01","value":130631},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":130159},{"date":"2024-03-01","value":131331},{"date":"2024-05-01","value":134210},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":135307},{"date":"2024-09-01","value":134435},{"date":"2024-11-01","value":133628},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":130950},{"date":"2025-03-01","value":130727},{"date":"2025-05-01","value":129385},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":127017},{"date":"2025-09-01","value":126321},{"date":"2025-11-01","value":127935},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":130426},{"date":"2026-03-01","value":133439},{"date":"2026-05-01","value":133301},{"date":"2026-07-01","value":132437},{"date":"2026-09-01","value":130485}],"latest":130485,"yoy":3.296364024983969,"fiveYr":22.416526723644587,"sinceStart":124.00089267321295},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1146}],"latest":1146,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":59806,"population":870779,"povertyRate":18.74558635912125,"medianHomeValue":180400,"medianGrossRent":1079,"medianPropertyTax":3660},"crime":{"scope":"city","agency":"El Paso Police Department","state":"TX","period":"11-2024 to 10-2026","window":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":3711,"ratePer100k":271.9438378449678},"propertyCrime":{"total":16809,"ratePer100k":1231.7714821708607},"note":"City-specific totals for El Paso Police Department via the FBI CDE two-step ORI lookup."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"11-2024","to":"10-2026","fellBack":false},"priceCagr":4.128692677398416,"rentCagr":3,"priceToRentRatio":9.5,"ratioVerdict":"Favorable for buying — price-to-rent favors owning (modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — it is not a claim of strong rental yield)","cashFlow":{"price":130485,"monthlyRent":1146,"grossRent":1146,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"TX","down":26097,"loan":104388,"mortgagePI":677.0585810456289,"monthlyTax":220.6283875,"taxRatePct":2.029,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.03% ($3,660 tax ÷ $180,400 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":92.42687500000001,"insuranceRatePct":0.85,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":true,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":57.300000000000004,"egi":1088.7,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":114.60000000000001,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":57.300000000000004,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":57.300000000000004,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":542.2552625000001,"noi":546.4447375,"totalExpenses":1219.313843545629,"cashFlow":-130.61384354562892,"annualCf":-1567.366122547547,"cocReturn":-6.005924522157899,"capRate":5.02535682262329},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-216.56384354562886,"delta":-86,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-164.99384354562903,"delta":-34,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-153.72056229562884,"delta":-23,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-237.78744513667925,"delta":-107,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 2000-01-01) (home values −18.1% over 12 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2001-09-01 → 2002-09-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-286.33364279949285,"delta":-156,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-286.33364279949285,"baselineCashFlow":-130.61384354562892,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":4.128692677398416,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":105374.17991076042,"totalCashOutlay":118665.11181712287,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (TX avg 0.85%/yr)","homeValueAfter":173202.23876475162,"equityBuilt":78431.01112502176,"netCostOfBuying":66331.10069210111,"buyingCheaper":true,"savings":39043.0792186593},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":2.1818045012206135,"price":130485,"medianIncome":59806,"label":"Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)"},"countyTaxRatePct":2.029,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 2.03% ($3,660 tax ÷ $180,400 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (ZIP vs county)","primary":130485,"secondary":211145,"primarySource":"ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","secondarySource":"Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)","ratio":0.62,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true},{"metric":"HUD fair market rent","primary":1146,"secondary":1079,"primarySource":"HUD FMR (county)","secondarySource":"Census ACS (county gross rent)","ratio":1.06,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":0.62,"sources":["ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":130485,"high":211145}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1079,"high":1146}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. Home value: the current ZIP market-index figure is paired against the county ACS × FHFA HPI estimate (current) — the spread measures ZIP-vs-county geography and methodology, not data age. Rent: the current ZIP market-rent-index figure is paired against HUD Small Area FMR when one exists for the ZIP, otherwise against the Census ACS county gross rent INFLATED to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the rent chart uses (a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one). 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-09-01 (75d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 4.1%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-09-01","ageDays":75,"cadence":"monthly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":0.62,"sources":["ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":130485,"high":211145}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.06,"sources":["HUD FMR (county)","Census ACS (county gross rent)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1079,"high":1146}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"El Paso, TX leans favorable for buying: a price-to-rent ratio of 9.5 favors owning at the median, and modeled investor cash flow is negative, so this is owner-occupant math — not a claim of strong rental yield.","faqs":[{"q":"Is El Paso, TX a good rental market?","a":"For owning at the median, yes — El Paso's price-to-rent ratio of 9.5 is in the favorable range, but modeled investor cash flow is negative, so it is not a claim of strong rental yield."},{"q":"What is the median home value in El Paso?","a":"The typical home value in El Paso is about $130,485 (ZIP-level market index, cross-checked against the Census ACS county median updated by FHFA HPI), up 3.3% year-over-year, and up 22.4% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in El Paso?","a":"The typical rent in El Paso is about $1,146/mo (county-level, HUD 2-bedroom benchmark bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in El Paso?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, buying is cheaper in El Paso — roughly $39,043 ahead of renting, with about $78,431 in equity built."},{"q":"Is El Paso affordable for homebuyers?","a":"El Paso's median home value is 2.2x the local median household income — Affordable (≤3x income — historical rule of thumb)."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in El Paso (ZIP 79901), TX was $130,485 as of September 2026, up 3.3% year over year (ZIP market index, cross-checked against FHFA HPI).","The typical market rent in El Paso (ZIP 79901), TX was $1,146/mo as of September 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Fair Market Rent, FY2027, bridged from Census ACS gross rent).","El Paso (ZIP 79901), TX has a price-to-rent ratio of 9.5 — a reading that favors owning (owner-occupant math — not automatically strong investor cash flow). (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCityReport","query":"city=El%20Paso&state=TX&zip=79901","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCityReport?city=El%20Paso&state=TX&zip=79901"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T12:05:14.333Z","homeValueBasis":"ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly) — cross-checked against ACS county × FHFA metro HPI","rentBasis":"HUD county FMR — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":"2026-09-01","zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"El Paso, TX HUD Metro FMR Area","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":null},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"zillow-zhvi","rentTier":"county-acs-hud","zhvi":{"latest":130485,"through":"2026-09-01","city":"El Paso","county":"El Paso County","metro":"El Paso, TX"},"zori":null,"safmr":null,"countyHomeEstimate":211145,"countyFmr":1146,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"El Paso, TX HUD Metro FMR Area"},"sources":["FHFA HPI","Census ACS 5-year","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE"]}