{"area":{"city":"Buffalo","state":"NY","county":"Erie County","zip":"14202"},"homeValue":{"series":[{"date":"2021-09-01","value":518617},{"date":"2021-11-01","value":524456},{"date":"2022-01-01","value":524420},{"date":"2022-03-01","value":517451},{"date":"2022-05-01","value":521681},{"date":"2022-07-01","value":532706},{"date":"2022-09-01","value":530044},{"date":"2022-11-01","value":527118},{"date":"2023-01-01","value":526849},{"date":"2023-03-01","value":528255},{"date":"2023-05-01","value":540998},{"date":"2023-07-01","value":548456},{"date":"2023-09-01","value":544036},{"date":"2023-11-01","value":542017},{"date":"2024-01-01","value":543355},{"date":"2024-03-01","value":549165},{"date":"2024-05-01","value":554648},{"date":"2024-07-01","value":556974},{"date":"2024-09-01","value":558538},{"date":"2024-11-01","value":557669},{"date":"2025-01-01","value":554597},{"date":"2025-03-01","value":559712},{"date":"2025-05-01","value":563392},{"date":"2025-07-01","value":563541},{"date":"2025-09-01","value":563158},{"date":"2025-11-01","value":566281},{"date":"2026-01-01","value":567453},{"date":"2026-03-01","value":566936},{"date":"2026-05-01","value":565831},{"date":"2026-07-01","value":564062},{"date":"2026-09-01","value":561305}],"latest":561305,"yoy":-0.32903732167526695,"fiveYr":8.231122388969125,"sinceStart":239.7380414848351},"rent":{"series":[{"date":"2026-11-01","value":1500}],"latest":1500,"yoy":null,"fiveYr":null,"sinceStart":null,"modeled":true},"census":{"medianIncome":72839,"population":950622,"povertyRate":13.851838354607665,"medianHomeValue":233800,"medianGrossRent":1090,"medianPropertyTax":4622},"crime":{"scope":"city","agency":"Buffalo Police Department","state":"NY","period":"09-2024 to 08-2026","window":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"violentCrime":{"total":3437,"ratePer100k":621.7798425379183},"propertyCrime":null,"note":"City-specific totals for Buffalo Police Department via the FBI CDE two-step ORI lookup."},"crimeVintage":{"from":"09-2024","to":"08-2026","fellBack":false},"priceCagr":1.594775057763398,"rentCagr":3,"priceToRentRatio":31.2,"ratioVerdict":"Favors renting — price is high relative to rent","cashFlow":{"price":561305,"monthlyRent":1500,"grossRent":1500,"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"units":1,"state":"NY","down":112261,"loan":449044,"mortgagePI":2912.4908367537782,"monthlyTax":924.7499875,"taxRatePct":1.977,"taxRateSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.98% ($4,622 tax ÷ $233,800 ACS median), applied to current value","monthlyInsurance":233.87708333333333,"insuranceRatePct":0.5,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","insuranceHighRisk":false,"vacancyPct":5,"vacancyLoss":75,"egi":1425,"mgmtPct":10,"monthlyMgmt":150,"maintenancePct":5,"monthlyMaint":75,"capexPct":5,"monthlyCapex":75,"hoaMonthly":0,"monthlyHoa":0,"operatingExpenses":1458.6270708333334,"noi":-33.62707083333339,"totalExpenses":4371.117907587111,"cashFlow":-2946.1179075871114,"annualCf":-35353.41489104534,"cocReturn":-31.492161027467542,"capRate":-0.07189047843863865},"resilience":{"scenarios":[{"id":"rentDown","label":"Rent drops 10%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3058.6179075871114,"delta":-112,"survives":false},{"id":"vacancy","label":"Vacancy stretches to 8%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-2991.1179075871114,"delta":-45,"survives":false},{"id":"insurance","label":"Insurance costs rise 25%","kind":"standard","detail":"Standard assumption","cashFlow":-3004.5871784204446,"delta":-58,"survives":false},{"id":"rateReset","label":"If financed at 8.25% instead","kind":"standard","detail":"Fixed-rate comparison — the deal if you'd borrowed at a higher rate today; your actual fixed payment never resets","cashFlow":-3407.1446803277677,"delta":-461,"survives":false},{"id":"historyHome","label":"Worst market shock in available history (since 2000-01-01) (home values −9.3% over 9 months)","kind":"history","detail":"History-derived proxy: worst decline found in any window of up to 12 months in the state FHFA home-value series, 2003-05-01 → 2004-02-01, applied to rent","cashFlow":-3051.1778779684882,"delta":-105,"survives":false}],"survived":0,"total":5,"score":0,"worstCashFlow":-3407.1446803277677,"baselineCashFlow":-2946.1179075871114,"framing":"underwater","confidenceLabel":"crosscheck","omitted":[],"note":"Each scenario re-runs the same verified cash-flow engine with one shock applied, then re-checks the cash-flow identity before display. Standard shocks are fixed assumptions; the history-derived scenario is this market's own worst observed 12-month decline. Estimates only — not a guarantee of performance."},"rentVsBuy":{"years":7,"priceCagr":1.594775057763398,"rentCagr":3,"totalRentPaid":137924.319254922,"totalCashOutlay":487171.5778640886,"insuranceBasis":"Insurance: state-level estimate (NY avg 0.5%/yr)","homeValueAfter":627044.7304133173,"equityBuilt":219369.02875934506,"netCostOfBuying":380063.5491047435,"buyingCheaper":false,"savings":242139.2298498215},"priceToIncome":{"ratio":7.706105245816115,"price":561305,"medianIncome":72839,"label":"Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)"},"countyTaxRatePct":1.977,"countyTaxSource":"Census ACS county effective rate 1.98% ($4,622 tax ÷ $233,800 ACS median), applied to current value","dataCheck":{"status":"crosscheck","checks":[{"metric":"home value (ZIP vs county)","primary":561305,"secondary":291253,"primarySource":"ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","secondarySource":"Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)","ratio":1.93,"grade":"crosscheck","consistent":false,"hidePoint":true},{"metric":"fair market rent (ZIP vs county)","primary":1500,"secondary":1423,"primarySource":"HUD Small Area FMR (ZIP 14202, FY2027)","secondarySource":"HUD county FMR (county, same year)","ratio":1.05,"grade":"verified","consistent":true,"hidePoint":false}],"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.93,"sources":["ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":291253,"high":561305}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["HUD Small Area FMR (ZIP 14202, FY2027)","HUD county FMR (county, same year)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1423,"high":1500}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"note":"Every headline metric is checked against a second figure, and each check names its own basis. Home value: the current ZIP market-index figure is paired against the county ACS × FHFA HPI estimate (current) — the spread measures ZIP-vs-county geography and methodology, not data age. Rent: the current ZIP market-rent-index figure is paired against HUD Small Area FMR when one exists for the ZIP, otherwise against the Census ACS county gross rent INFLATED to current dollars with the same ACS rent trend the rent chart uses (a raw ~2021 ACS figure is never compared to a current one). 'Verified' means the two figures agree within 15%; 'Cross-checked' means they diverge more than 15%; 'Divergent' flags a >2x difference. A spread beyond 35% is too wide to defend a single point — the headline shows the source range instead, flagged 'sources disagree'."},"integrity":{"status":"pass","checks":[{"name":"home value freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-09-01 (75d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"home value card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"home value growth window","status":"pass","detail":"growth matches the 5.0yr available window"},{"name":"rent freshness","status":"pass","detail":"latest 2026-11-01 (14d old — current for monthly cadence)"},{"name":"rent card↔chart","status":"pass","detail":"card matches chart"},{"name":"cash flow identity","status":"pass","detail":"NOI − P&I = cash flow"},{"name":"cash-on-cash","status":"pass","detail":"annual CF ÷ down matches"},{"name":"cap rate","status":"pass","detail":"NOI×12 ÷ price matches"},{"name":"price-to-rent","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ (rent×12) matches"},{"name":"income plausibility","status":"pass","detail":"within expected range"},{"name":"price-to-income","status":"pass","detail":"price ÷ income matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: home value at term","status":"pass","detail":"compounds at 1.6%/yr"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: total rent paid","status":"pass","detail":"geometric series matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: equity built","status":"pass","detail":"home value − loan balance matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: net cost","status":"pass","detail":"outlay − equity gain matches"},{"name":"buy-vs-rent: savings & verdict","status":"pass","detail":"savings = rent − net cost, verdict matches"}],"summary":"16/16 verified","freshness":{"homeValue":{"date":"2026-09-01","ageDays":75,"cadence":"monthly","current":true},"rent":{"date":"2026-11-01","ageDays":14,"cadence":"monthly","current":true}}},"confidence":{"homeValue":{"label":"crosscheck","ratio":1.93,"sources":["ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly)","Census ACS county median × FHFA metro HPI (current)"],"hidePoint":true,"range":{"low":291253,"high":561305}},"rent":{"label":"verified","ratio":1.05,"sources":["HUD Small Area FMR (ZIP 14202, FY2027)","HUD county FMR (county, same year)"],"hidePoint":false,"range":{"low":1423,"high":1500}},"income":{"label":"estimate","sources":["Census ACS"]},"crime":{"label":"estimate","sources":["FBI CDE"]}},"verdict":"Buffalo, NY is appreciation-driven for owning: at a 31.2x price-to-rent ratio, the math favors renting — monthly investor cash flow is typically thin or negative unless you buy below median or add units.","faqs":[{"q":"Is Buffalo, NY a good rental market?","a":"Tough for cash flow. At 31.2x, Buffalo is appreciation-driven — most investors here bank on equity growth, not monthly rent spread."},{"q":"What is the median home value in Buffalo?","a":"The typical home value in Buffalo is about $561,305 (ZIP-level market index, cross-checked against the Census ACS county median updated by FHFA HPI), down 0.3% year-over-year, and up 8.2% over five years."},{"q":"What is the median rent in Buffalo?","a":"The typical rent in Buffalo is about $1,500/mo (ZIP-level, HUD Small Area FMR bridged from Census ACS gross rent), a current modeled estimate."},{"q":"Is it cheaper to rent or buy in Buffalo?","a":"Over a 7-year horizon, renting is cheaper in Buffalo by about $242,139 — buying only pays off if prices appreciate faster than projected."},{"q":"Is Buffalo affordable for homebuyers?","a":"Buffalo's median home value is 7.7x the local median household income — Stretched (>5x — historically expensive vs local incomes)."}],"takeaways":["The median home value in Buffalo (ZIP 14202), NY was $561,305 as of September 2026, down 0.3% year over year (ZIP market index, cross-checked against FHFA HPI).","The typical market rent in Buffalo (ZIP 14202), NY was $1,500/mo as of September 2026, a current modeled estimate (HUD Small Area FMR, FY2027).","Buffalo (ZIP 14202), NY has a price-to-rent ratio of 31.2 — a high reading that favors renting over buying at the median. (Computed by Areal from the figures above.)"],"citationSources":[{"name":"U.S. Census Bureau — ACS ACS 2024 5-year estimates","url":"https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/acs/"},{"name":"FHFA House Price Index","url":"https://www.fhfa.gov/data/hpi"},{"name":"HUD Small Area Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr/smallarea/index.html"},{"name":"HUD Fair Market Rent","url":"https://www.huduser.gov/portal/datasets/fmr.html"},{"name":"FBI Crime Data Explorer","url":"https://cde.ucr.cjis.gov/"}],"jsonApi":{"function":"getCityReport","query":"city=Buffalo&state=NY&zip=14202","url":"https://areal.studio/functions/getCityReport?city=Buffalo&state=NY&zip=14202"},"assumptions":{"downPct":20,"ratePct":6.75,"years":7},"dataVintage":{"pulledAt":"2026-11-14T14:21:26.589Z","homeValueBasis":"ZIP market index (ZIP, monthly) — cross-checked against ACS county × FHFA metro HPI","rentBasis":"HUD Small Area FMR (ZIP) — flat current estimate (modeled, no public trend)","zhviThrough":"2026-09-01","zoriThrough":null,"fhfaHpiThrough":"2026-04-01","hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY MSA","acsVintage":"ACS 2024 5-year estimates","acsVintageMisses":[],"hudFy":"2027","safmrFy":"2027"},"zipAnchors":{"homeValueTier":"zillow-zhvi","rentTier":"hud-safmr","zhvi":{"latest":561305,"through":"2026-09-01","city":"Buffalo","county":"Erie County","metro":"Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY"},"zori":null,"safmr":{"perUnit":1500,"zipCode":"14202","year":"2027","bedrooms":2,"estimated":false,"baseBedrooms":2},"countyHomeEstimate":291253,"countyFmr":1423,"countyRatio":null,"hpiLevel":"metro","hpiMetro":"Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY MSA"},"sources":["HUD Small Area FMR","FHFA HPI","Census ACS 5-year","HUD Fair Market Rent","FBI CDE"]}